'Space economy increasingly strategic but international cooperation declining'

The slowdown in international cooperation comes at a time when space has become not only a political, but also an economic confrontation market. For decades, satellite launchers - there are now 4,500 satellites in orbit - were publicly owned. Today, they are increasingly private. The most striking example is the Falcon 9, the launcher of Space X, Musk's company, which launches into orbit twice a week. "Two thirds of the launches made by the Falcon 9 are for its own purposes, i.e. to launch Starlink satellites. The remaining third is for institutional purposes,' notes Josef Aschbacher.

In this context, the Esa itself wants to encourage the emergence of private companies. 'The market,' he continues, 'will increasingly be driven by the private sector. We, as a public institution, want to develop a space infrastructure that is commercially competitive. We took this decision in Seville in November 2023, when we agreed on a plan, the European Launcher Challenge. Esa will ask private companies to compete. As a public sector, we will define the conditions under which we will be able to develop a competitive commercial market'.

The European Space Agency executive further specifies: 'In addition to the Ariane 6 and Vega C launchers, we also want to have smaller launchers, the so-called micro-launchers, which we want to develop through the European Launcher Challenge programme. We hope that these smaller rockets will grow over time with a more powerful engine and a larger first stage, gradually evolving into medium and eventually large launchers. It will take time, in the order of 10 years, but this will initiate further valuable innovations in the European launcher sector.

Space is a strategic market; all public actors, including the European Union, preferably use their own launchers. The issue of private launchers is therefore closely linked to that of sovereignty. "We are reflecting on how to make sure that commercial launchers are reliable in the future, so that we can use them, as a public sector, not only for five years, but also for the next 10, 20 or even 30 years. Of course we know that private companies can be bought up, they can go bankrupt, many things can happen along the way. That is why we have to secure long-term guarantees.

In short, strategic autonomy is indeed crucial in space. In the recent past, it has happened that in the absence of European public launchers, Esa has relied on Space X to launch its satellites. "This was an exception, a back-up solution, not a normal one,' explains Aschbacher, who likes to point out that the opposite has also happened: 'Amazon bought 18 launches with Ariane 6 to launch its Kuiper satellite constellation.

In his recent report, Mario Draghi insists on the ESA abandoning one of the founding principles of the agency, according to which each country must get a return on its investment. Draghi would like there to be more solidarity in the Esa as well, in order to make the most of synergies and investments. The response from the Esa director general is cautious. Aschbacher first of all recalls that this principle has enabled Europe to equip itself with a satellite network, Galileo, and a planetary observation system, Copernicus, of excellent quality: 'Every time we launch a space programme in Europe, the results we obtain are very competitive and excellent value for money. Very often these projects are the best in the world'.

"Having said that," admits the Director General of the Space Agency, "the principle of geographical return has its limitations. Therefore, I proposed to the Member States to simplify its implementation, adapting it to new needs, new requirements and new challenges. The world has become faster and more competitive. We have already adapted the principle and will continue to do so. Today, almost half of the ESA budget is not spent according to the rules of geographical return (...) Gradually we are introducing more flexibility'.

Today, the space economy is worth between 450 and 500 billion euros a year. Consulting firms predict that its value will reach EUR 1.8 trillion in the next decade. At the same time, European public investment in space accounts for just one sixth of US funding. Fewer satellites, less activity. While the US needs 30 to 40 institutional launches per year, the EU requires four to six.

"Independent studies,' Aschbacher continues, 'have shown that one euro spent in the space industry translates into a five to ten euro gain in the economy(...). Very often, investments in the space industry create new sectors and support new economies, across the board. For example, if we invest EUR 1 billion in a new Earth observation system, new service companies will spring up to offer new meteorological, agricultural or health services. Even the pharmaceutical sector is benefiting from the space industry as we are doing research on zero gravity in space'. It is precisely the enormous economic potential of space that should boost international cooperation, which has been so badly affected by political tensions. Despite everything, the ESA remains at the centre of a network of cooperation, signing more than 500 agreements worldwide.