The project

Space economy, how the EU relaunches itself in the space race

After more than a decade of delays, Brussels is getting back on track in the industry. The competitiveness issue remains

by Alberto Magnani (Sole 24 Ore, Italy), György Folk (EUrologus/HVG), El Confidencial (Spain)

(Photo by jody amiet / AFP)

6' min read

6' min read

Last 15 July, in Rome, Giorgia Meloni's Italian government reopened one of the most frequent chapters in its foreign policy: relations with Africa, the Continent at the heart of the so-called 'Mattei Plan' strategy and of the ambitions to strengthen an axis between Rome, Brussels and the Continent's economies. The tones of the day did not appear unprecedented, amid praise for Africa's 'centrality' in national strategies and promises of a change of course in relations. The topic was, at least with respect to the most talked about area of government policy: the space industry.

The Italian executive is attempting to broaden its scope to the so-called space economy, starting with the relaunch of its historic space base in Malindi, Kenya, active since the 1960s. In the background, there is a broader ambition: that of creating a bridge between the European Space Agency and the African Space Agency, founded by the African Union (AU) in early 2023 and now hosted by Egypt. The development of a space strategy is one of the 15 'flagship' programmes of the so-called Agenda 2063, the priority plan established by the African Union to 'accelerate' growth and development on the continent.

But it is also a crucial step for European industry as a whole, from individual countries to EU policies. On a national scale, there are cases such as the Italian government's plans to redeem the sector in Kenya or the agreements signed by Spain, which in May became the twenty-fifth country to sign the Artemis Agreements and is now embarking on a new partnership between Nasa and the newly created Spanish Space Agency (Aee). On an EU scale, Brussels is trying to get back on track and put the so-called 'launcher crisis' behind it, the stagnation of autonomous initiatives that has dragged on for over a year: since July 2023, when the Ariane 5 heavy launcher left the scene, Brussels had found itself without an autonomous space launcher.

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The 'fast' was broken a year later, in July 2024, when its heir Ariane 6 took off on its first test mission from French Guiana and carried nine CubeSats satellites produced by EU companies into space. The launch suffered some malfunctions, but the balance is favourable in view of new missions. As Andrea Gili, research fellow at the Ispi study centre, pointed out in his analysis, it is nevertheless a 'new pillar in the history of European space industry and exploration. It brings oxygen back to the entire aerospace sector, but above all it is the first step towards a return to strategic autonomy and autonomous access to space'.

The EU relaunches its 'space race'

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The process is underway. On 11 July, the European Commission, the guardian of EU funds, published an analysis report on the EU space programme and its specific agency. The overall conclusion of the programme, with a budget of EUR 15 billion for the period 2021-27, is proving positive. After more than a decade of chronic delays, technical complications and excessive costs on the Galileo-EGNOSS satellite navigation system, the EU seems to be on a better path in the space race.

The bottom line for European taxpayers is that the Commission's programme, including the Earth observation initiative, is achieving its goals and enabling services to capitalise - finally - on precision technology. The report reminds policy makers that 'the use of space data and services extends far beyond traditional applications, playing a crucial role in various sectors, e.g. energy, urban planning, insurance or environmental monitoring'. The Earth observation (EO) market is expected to grow to almost EUR 6 billion by 2033. Meanwhile, revenues from the global downstream market for Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are expected to rise from EUR 260 billion today to EUR 600 billion by 2033.

Promoting the competitiveness of EU industry and boosting innovation: space technologies, in particular downstream space solutions, can have a robust impact on the development of European industry. While Copernicus is expected to generate socio-economic benefits of between €35bn and €131bn by 2030, 84% of which will come from the downstream sector, Galileo and Egnos are expected to generate socio-economic benefits of between €60bn and €90bn up to 2043 - according to the EC Space Inventory Report. A related aspect of the EU objectives is that in May 2024, the European Space Agency announced the selection of two companies to develop commercial cargo services to the International Space Station.

These are the Exploration Company, a start-up company founded just three years ago by French and Germans. And secondly Thales Alenia Space, a Franco-Italian supplier of space systems. The two companies have secured initial funding of €25 million to develop a commercially credible service to low Earth orbit by 2028, as offered by Elon Musk's Space X.
The move marks ESA's first real step to copy the approach of the US space agency, NASA, of buying spaceflight services from companies rather than commissioning the development of rockets and spacecraft.

Investment in a satellite communication system

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The signing of contracts for the low earth orbit cargo return service shows how ESA has modernised to 'meet the needs of the next era of the space economy', Josef Aschbacher, ESA's director general, told the Financial Times in a recent interview. In line with the agency's approach, former Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta writes in his report on the state of the EU single market that the EU space market should be integrated, because the European space industry is no longer adequate to compete in today's global space economy.

In the wake of Russia's war against Ukraine, the EU took another key space policy decision, long delayed, when European decision-makers decided to invest in its own satellite communication system, similar to Elon Musk's Starlink. According to the official pledge, the so-called 'IRIS2 satellite constellation is the EU's answer to tomorrow's pressing challenges, offering increased communication capabilities to government and business users, while providing high-speed Internet broadband to address connectivity dead zones'"

The IRIS2 satellite constellation is the European Union's answer to the pressing challenges of tomorrow, offering increased communication capabilities to government and business users, while providing high-speed Internet broadband to address connectivity dead zones.This multi-orbital constellation will combine the benefits of Low Earth Orbit (LEO), Geostationary Earth Orbit (Geo) and Medium Earth Orbit (Meo) satellites. It is intended to provide secure communication services to the EU and its Member States, as well as broadband connectivity for European citizens, private companies and government authorities.

The geopolitical dispute

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The redemption of the European space industry responds, also, to a geopolitical need: to keep pace with a competition and expansionism that is reinforcing the ambitions of other powers and increasing the backwardness of Brussels. The balance of power in the industry is well known, at least as long as we talk about the heavyweights and rising players in the global space race. The United States still holds the lead, with a space economy market that in 2021 was worth around USD 211 billion and over 360,000 jobs in the supply chain.

China is gaining ground and, according to analyses by US intelligence itself, could openly undermine Washington within a few years. A report published in 2023 by the Director of National Intelligence points out that Beijing is 'growing rapidly' in the field and is on track to 'become a major global competitor' by 2030. The Dragon, the US intelligence report also points out, is leveraging the business sector to accelerate and support its medium-term goals. The best known and most ambitious is 'Guowang', the design of a mega-constellation of 13,000 satellites under Beijing's control. The pace is relentless, with the specialist journal Space News talking about a leap of 'just' 22 launches in 2016 to 67 in 2023 and 100 in 2024.

Against the backdrop of the US-China challenge, other players are staying the course or making inroads. Russia is at the mercy of the sanctions imposed after its aggression against Ukraine, but is nevertheless looking forward to good industry growth in the short term. India is a direct candidate for global power, with a growth rate unparalleled in its industry history. Giants such as Boeing and Airbus are expanding their operations in the subcontinent, fuelling a market projected to reach USD 70 billion by 2030. The European Union is picking up the pace, with an original fragility and potential: the link between 27 different economies and the search for a common industrial policy. The same one that can push, or brake, the new Brussels space race.


This article is part of the Pulse project and was written by Alberto Magnani (Il Sole 24 Ore, Italy) and György Folk (EUrologus/HVG), with the contribution of the Spanish newspaper El Confidencial (Spain).

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  • Alberto Magnani

    Alberto MagnaniCorrispondente

    Luogo: Nairobi

    Lingue parlate: inglese, tedesco

    Argomenti: Lavoro, Unione europea, Africa

    Premi: Premio "Alimentiamo il nostro futuro, nutriamo il mondo. Verso Expo 2015" di Agrofarma Federchimica e Fondazione Veronesi; Premio giornalistico State Street, categoria "Innovation"

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