Geopolitics of space and Musk's undoubted competitive advantage

Elon Musk's presence is so pervasive in the space world that not a day goes by without his exploits being a topic of conversation. The launch of Crew 9, with its two empty seats to bring home astronauts stranded on the ISS by the problems of competitor Boeing's Starliner shuttle, has given him the aura of the saviour. In fact, this intervention, which NASA does not want to call a rescue because it claims that the astronauts are not stranded at all, only consolidates the monopoly position held by Elon Musk, who, with SpaceX, is the master in the field of human flight. Anyone who wants to leave from American soil, professional astronaut or space tourist, has to use his capsules. The service is excellent, but that does not mean that the slightest error is tolerated. Every flaw that occurs in the operation of the Falcon9 has to pass the scrutiny of the Federal Aviation Administration, which stops the launches until the problem has been resolved. It has happened three times in the last three months, first on 11 July due to a problem with the second-stage engine that had caused the loss of 20 Starlink satellites released at too low an altitude, then on 28 August the first-stage recovery manoeuvre had failed for the first time after 267 successes. On 29 September, however, the problem occurred on the re-entry of the second stage which, after having carried the Crew 9 capsule into orbit, crashed in the Pacific outside its intended area.

Significantly, when these failures occur, the most concerned are the customers who see their programmes delayed because SpaceX dominates the launcher market and serves a large customer base.

In September there were nine launches. Four times Space X was its own customer, with the Starlink satellites, then there were two manned probes, the Polaris Dawn tourists and the Crew 9 professionals, the European Commission entrusted SpaceX with the launch of its Galileo, the US government with that of a new spy satellite and the Bluebird company with its satellites for direct connection with mobile phones.

On the 29th and 30th, two OneWeb satellite launches were planned, again in the satellite Internet business. But, in the queue, there are two important planetary missions that have barely negotiable launch windows. On Monday, ESA's HERA planetary defence mission is scheduled to study the binary asteroid Dydimos, three days later it will be the turn of NASA's Europa Clipper mission, to study Jupiter's moon Europa.

SpaceX said it has understood the problem and ESA is hoping that authorisation to resume launches will arrive by Sunday, allowing HERA to leave on Monday.