Big Tech

SpaceX takes Wall Street by storm: is it worth less than a thousand billion or more than five thousand?

Less than a week after its flotation, Elon Musk’s company has become one of the most controversial firms on the financial market

by Biagio Simonetta

2' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

2' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

Is SpaceX worth less than a thousand billion or more than five thousand? Well, judging by the figures, Wall Street has never been so divided. Less than a week after its IPO, the world’s leading aerospace company has become one of the most controversial firms on the financial market. Of course, we might think the blame lies with the fierce controversies that have surrounded a highly controversial figure like Elon Musk for years. But no. This time, the divide lies in the analysts’ views. No one seems to agree on just how much Starlink’s parent company is actually worth.

According to data compiled by Bloomberg, the lowest target price set by analysts is that of Morningstar, which values the share at $63. At the other end of the scale is Arete Research, which has initiated coverage with a ‘Buy’ recommendation and a target price of $401. With the share trading at around $192, the difference between the two valuations exceeds 500 per cent.

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The gap becomes even more apparent when expressed in terms of the company’s total market capitalisation.

At current prices, SpaceX is worth around 2.4 trillion dollars. If Morningstar’s target were applied, the valuation would fall to just under 800 billion. If, on the other hand, Arete Research’s target were applied, the value would exceed 5 trillion dollars.

This is an unusual range, even for a company that has only just been listed. By way of comparison, five thousand billion dollars would represent a market capitalisation greater than the combined current value of Apple and Microsoft at many points in their recent history. A colossal figure.

But what lies behind this rift? Undoubtedly, profoundly different visions for the future of Musk’s group.

The more cautious analysts believe that the market is already pricing in extremely optimistic scenarios for businesses that have yet to prove their economic viability. Morningstar, for example, takes a cautious view, arguing that the current price reflects very aggressive expectations regarding the future contribution of artificial intelligence, space-based data centres and Starship-related activities.

On the other hand, bullish analysts view SpaceX as something other than a traditional aerospace company. Oppenheimer has described the group as an integrated platform combining satellite connectivity, artificial intelligence infrastructure, launch capabilities and advanced manufacturing. From this perspective, the current business represents merely the foundation for growth that is yet to be realised.

Interim valuations also show just how much the market is struggling to find a balance. New Street Research values the share at $165, Oppenheimer at $190, KGI Securities at $227 and The Zephirin Group at $310.

In other words, analysts agree that SpaceX is one of the most important technology companies of the moment. What they do not agree on is the fundamental question underlying every technology share price: how much of the future should be factored into today’s price. As always, the market will provide the answer.

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