Srm: GDP in the South in 2024 will still grow by 1%

After a long period in which the economy of southern Italy was systematically below the Italian average, the first half of 2024 confirms the signs that already in 2023 gave indications of a trend reversal with a renewed process of convergence between the economy of southern Italy and the national average. In fact, it is estimated that the GDP of Southern Italy will grow in 2024 (just under 1%, in line with the national average), after the positive figures of 2023 (+1.3% against +0.9% in Italy). This is the message that emerges from the latest issue of the 'Midsummer Economic Panorama of Southern Italy' published by SRM, a study centre linked to the Intesa Sanpaolo group, which provides a different vision of the South, where the desire to invest, the presence of innovative realities and growth prospects highlight unexpected numbers and provide food for thought and policy for the growth of the country.'

The entrepreneurial fabric is strengthening: in the second quarter of 2024, there were more than 1.72 million active enterprises, with a consolidation of the presence of capital companies, up 4% compared to 2023, against +3.3% for Italy. Employment is increasing: at the end of 2023, the Mezzogiorno will have 6.3 million employees, almost 27% of the Italian total, with a higher growth than the national figure (+3.1%, against +2.1%). Exports continue to grow: in the first quarter of 2024, the South recorded exports of more than EUR 17 billion, +5.8% compared to 2023 (in contrast with the Italian figure, down by -3.5%). Innovative SMEs are also on the rise: in July 2024, there were 607 units (21% of Italy) with an annual growth rate of 16.3% (in Italy +13.4%); innovative start-ups, for their part, number 3,702 (28.8% of Italy) and, although declining, are performing better than the national figure (-1.7% against -7.2%).

Enterprises in the Mezzogiorno confirm a 'great willingness to invest', with a preference for more weighted (and traditional) choices, following the 'rally' highlighted in the last three years: 2/3 of investments are traditional and aimed at improving structural potential. On the other hand, 34% is in digital, sustainability and research, against a national average of 28%. The good signs from the tourism sector are confirmed, thanks to the foreign component: with more than 24.3 million arrivals and 86.1 million presences, almost parity is reached with pre-pandemic values (99.5%, against +10.4% in Italy). Foreign presences alone have already reached 101% and the forecasts for 2024 leave no doubt as to the full recovery of all values. Ports, Shipping and Logistics as drivers of the economy: the ports of the South serve 47% of the country's freight traffic, equal to 224 million tonnes of goods handled in 2023 (-1.4%; in Italy -3.2%). The Single SEZ must be able to contribute significantly to the growth of their competitiveness.

The South is the country's green energy reservoir: the area produces over 39% of the total GWh generated from renewable sources, with peaks in wind power exceeding 96%. Awareness of the environment is increasing: in the South there are 231 'Waste Free' municipalities and the recovery of the area is significant with a growth of 31% in the last year (in Italy +11%). Central to the economy is the 'third sector': the South has almost 100,000 non-profit organisations (27.5% of the total), which grew slightly in the last year (+0.2%; Italy -0.5%).

Effective use of available resources is essential: the new 2021/2027 programming has begun, in complementarity with the PNRR, whose implementation is approaching its peak spending years. As of today, actual expenditure amounts to 52.2 billion (27% of total resources), while 72% of southern enterprises declare that they are 'fairly or very well informed' (69% in Italy) and 7% are already involved in related projects (12% in Italy). The recent approval of the Strategic Plan of the Single SEZ should provide further impetus: the instrument should guarantee administrative simplifications and not insignificant tax advantages. To date, the degree of knowledge and participation is still low (13% of southern enterprises say they are very or fairly well informed and only 3% are already involved; in Italy 4% and 1% respectively).