Maritime economy

Srm: maritime traffic in Italy grows (0.7%) despite tariffs and conflicts

The 12th Report of the Intesa Sanpaolo-affiliated research centre shows still positive trends for Italy and the world but predicts a slowdown

by Vera Viola

4 July 2025

4' min read

Key points

Gros-Pietro: "In the front row to support the South (2 billion) and the maritime economy"
Global maritime trade +2.1% in 2024
Tariffs will impact the world economy

4' min read

Italy remains a leading player in Short Sea Shipping, with 302 million tonnes handled in 2024. Italy is first in the Euro-Mediterranean area, where the recorded traffic reached 628 million tonnes handled. The Mediterranean also retains its centrality: the 25 main ports handled 62 million TEUs last year, a growth of 5.1%, despite geopolitical tensions that have redrawn the geography of traffic, boosting rotations to the Cape of Good Hope.

A few insights from the Twelfth Annual Report "Italian Maritime Economy", by SRM (Study Centre affiliated to the Intesa Sanpaolo Group), presented at the Gallerie d'Italia in Naples, entitled this year "Protectionism and tariffs: impacts on global shipping and port models. The Mediterranean at the centre of the scenarios between intermodality and sustainability'.

The 2025 Report - produced within the framework of the Extended Partnership 'NEST - Network 4 Energy Sustainable Transition'- focused on highly topical issues: the new geopolitical scenarios that are shaping the maritime economy and the world's straits (Suez, Hormuz, Panama), the introduction of tariffs by the United States, and the frontiers of sustainable shipping and logistics and sea-iron intermodality.

Gros-Pietro: 'In the front row to support the South (2 billion) and the maritime economy'

Gian Maria Gros-Pietro, Intesa Sanpaolo Chairman: "We want to be at the forefront in supporting the great potential of the Italian economy in southern Italy, as well as the entire maritime cluster in facing the challenges that await it. We are proud of the decision to support the ZES Unica for southern Italy and the Zone Logistiche Semplificate for the centre north, for which our group has made available a ceiling of EUR 10 billion to finance investments for the development of the industry-ports-logistics system. I would like to recall the specialised desk on the shipping sector, within the Banca dei Territori Division, and that the IMI CIB Division has credit lines granted to the maritime sector for more than 6.7 billion at a national level: more than 3 billion euro granted to the shipping sector (cargo and passengers) and the same amount to the shipbuilding sector".

For Italy, which is one of the most open economies in the world _ says Srm _ and with one of the highest incidences of the export + import/GDP ratio (54.3% in 2024), US policy presents quite a few elements of concern. Suffice it to say that the United States has become the second largest market for our products in 2024. Italy, is one of the countries with the largest trade surplus ($44bn), and is therefore a target of tariff policy (as is the entire European Union more generally).

Despite everything, Italian ports proved resilient once again. In total they handled 481 million tonnes (+0.7%). The main category of goods handled by ports continued to be liquid bulk with 170 million tonnes (+1.6%), followed by Ro-Ro at 122 million (+0.2%). It was mainly the container segment that performed well. A total of 11.7 million TEUs were handled (+6.5%), but it was transhipment that grew significantly (+17.5%), which compensated for the slight reduction (-0.4%) in gateway traffic. In general, the ports of the Ligurian and Tyrrhenian system recorded a positive trend; the Adriatic backbone, on the other hand, showed a reduction compared to 2023 (-3.8%).

However, the development of intermodality and sea-rail connections, in which the country is investing especially in upgrading the last mile, is proceeding slowly. Overall, the number of goods trains recorded at RFI stations located within Italian ports was more than 45,000 in 2024, substantially stable (-0.4%) compared to the previous year. Better equipped with connections between the port and the railway network are the ports of Trieste, Ravenna, La Spezia and Genoa Voltri. It should also be noted that - as shown by an SRM survey conducted for Northern Italy - only 12%-15% of manufacturing companies use intermodal transport.

To protect and strengthen the competitiveness of Italian ports in a complex market such as the Mediterranean, several infrastructure investments are planned to modernise and achieve greater logistical efficiency, also with the support of PNRR funds.

Global Maritime Trade +2.1% in 2024

The uncertain situation in the global economy, due to wars and tariffs, has a strong impact on the economy, but at least for now, it does not stop growth. Srm gathers positive forecasts: global seaborne trade, which increased by 2.1% in 2024 to 12.6 billion tonnes, will grow (less but will grow) in a range between 0.2% in 2025 and +1.5% in 2026.

Changing routes in the direction of regionalisation

Geopolitical crises and the application of tariffs are forcing importers to reorganise their supply chains: there is a shift from globalisation to regionalisation. Trade between the US and China declines sharply and this will lead to a shift in trade. The US in 2024 imported mainly from Mexico. China lost its position as the top exporter to the US in 2023, ending a 17-year primacy. Over the past 10 years, Chinese imports from the US have decreased by 9%. The trend of change is also confirmed by the growth of regional container routes worldwide, which grow by 7.3% between 2021 and 2026 against a world average of 6.1%. There are also effects on freight rates. After an annual reduction of 39% in May 2025, they have been recovering in the last month following the partial suspension of tariffs (for 90 days).

Tariffs will impact the world economy

In conclusion, tariffs will impact approximately 500 million tonnes per year of seaborne goods, or 4% of the world total. Despite the regionalisation phenomena, what happens in North America reverberates on the world economy. It is the world's 3rd largest area by volume of container traffic after Asia and Europe and will remain so in the coming years.

Other protectionist measures also affect the maritime economy. On 17 April 2025, the United States Trade Representative (USTR) introduced measures (effective 14 October 2025) to boost shipbuilding and reduce Chinese dominance in this sector. Taxes will be levied on stopovers in US ports of ships owned, operated or built in China.

There are also specific measures for LNG carriers and Carriers. Nine per cent of all calls in the US by ships engaged in international trade will be subject to the new measure. This measure would generate revenues of approximately USD 12 billion in 2026, which could rise to USD 18 billion in 2028.