Stability Pact: penalties of more than one billion every six months for Italia in case of breach

Not respecting the constraints of the Stability Pact would have a cost for Italia. The deviation from the pegs, which some members of the majority are demanding in order to be able to intervene with measures such as the excise cut, involves sanctions - of at least one billion every six months - set by Brussels from 2024. It was then, in fact, that the reform was signed, after the years of Covid exemptions.

It is foreseeable, moreover, that beyond theoretical sanctions it could trigger an institutional confrontation with Brussels. "Member states subject to an excessive deficit procedure should respect the corrective path recommended by the Council," a Commission spokesperson clarified to Ansa, when asked about the hypothetical slippage.

In fact, Italia is already inside the "corrective arm" provided for by the Pact for those who overrun: the excessive deficit procedure was opened in 2024, after a deficit of around 7.4% of GDP in 2023. And, as is known, 2025 ended with a deficit at 3.1%.

The new European framework has changed the way states are evaluated. The core is a net expenditure trajectory defined in medium-term plans negotiated by the countries with the European Commission. In the case of 'failure to act effectively', the regulation provides for penalties of up to 0.05% of GDP every six months, cumulative up to a maximum of 0.5%. The basis of calculation is nominal GDP at current prices according to the European statistical system (Sec 2010), validated by Eurostat. On the basis of the Eurostat figure for 2025 released last week (EUR 2,258,048 million), the calculation is soon done: just over EUR 1.1 billion every six months, while the theoretical 0.5% would be worth EUR 11.3 billion.

For the fine to actually arrive, there must be an assessment by the Commission that 'effective action' is absent and there must then be a decision by the Council.