Towards the Budget Law 2025

Manoeuvre, 22-23 billion intervention hypothesis. State Accountancy Office: revenue increase of 13 billion in the first half of 2024

The dynamic is the result of the positive change in tax revenues (+€10.973 billion, +4.2%) and the growth, in cash terms, of contribution revenues (+€2.14 billion, +1.7%)

by Redaction Rome

Aggiornato il 20 agosto 2024, ore 17:40

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It is still a hypothesis. At present, a manoeuvre of EUR 22-23 billion is being worked on. This is what emerges from the reasoning of sources close to the dossier. Within this framework, almost 13 billion would have already been defined and work is being done to complete the resource base with the missing 10 billion. For Marco Osnato, chairman of the Finance Commission of the Chamber of Deputies, "even within the framework of the new EU regulations, we will manage to make a manoeuvre that I think is around 25 billion, perhaps something more". 'I think,' Osnato said, 'that we have managed to channel our proposals for the budget law into an order' in the sign of 'aid to development and businesses and above all an increase in the purchasing power of workers and families'.

The revenue boom

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Meanwhile, the tax and contribution receipts in the period January-June 2024 increased by EUR 13.113 billion compared to the same period in 2023. This was announced by the State General Accounting Office. "The dynamic observed," reads a note, "is the result of the positive change in tax revenues (+10.973 billion, +4.2%) and the growth, in cash terms, of contribution revenues (+2.14 billion, +1.7%). The comparison with 2023, however, "is not homogeneous" because, despite the increase in revenue, this year's figure does not include the revenue from the self-assessment of income tax returns: the ordinary payment deadline for 2024 for the balance and the first IRPEF, IRES and IRAP advance, has slipped to 1 July because 30 June fell on a Sunday. This was reported by the Ragioneria Generale dello Stato, in the Revenue Report - June 2024 published on the Mef portal. This is the June 2024 edition of the Monthly Report on the trend of tax and contribution revenues, drawn up by the Department of Finance and the Department of the State General Accounting Office, in accordance with the provisions of the law on accounting and public finance (Article 14, paragraph 5, Law 196/2009).

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Increased receipts from controls

Tax revenues in the period under review increased by EUR 10.973 billion (+4.2%) compared to the same period in 2023, reaching EUR 273.502 billion. Revenue from taxes booked to the state budget increased by 10.168 billion (+4.1%). Revenues from assessment and control activities grew (+1.707 billion, +31.2%). Revenues of territorial authorities decreased (-1.473 billion, -5.2%). In the first half of 2024, tax revenues of the state budget, ascertained on an accrual basis, amounted to EUR 257.719 billion (+4.1%). Revenues from direct taxes amounted to EUR 141.924 billion (+ EUR 5.030 billion, +3.7%); those from indirect taxes amounted to EUR 115.795 billion (+ EUR 5.138 billion, +4.6%).

Increased IRPEF revenue

Among direct tax revenues, Irpef revenue amounted to EUR 112.883 billion (+ EUR 7.219 billion, +6.8%) mainly due to the increase in employee withholding taxes (+ EUR 8.543 billion, +8.6%). The self-assessment component decreased (-€1.392 billion, -34.8%), which was affected by the absence of this year's self-assessment income from tax returns. For IRES, the comparison was also uneven (-7,463 billion lire, -48.5%). Positive trends were reported for withholding taxes on profits distributed by legal entities (+€708bn, +36.0%) due to the increase in profits and dividends in 2023, and for withholding tax on interest and other capital income (+€5,403bn, +96.6%) due to the increase in interest rates in 2023. Among indirect taxes, VAT receipts amounted to €80.094 billion (+3.585 billion, +4.7%), of which €71.053 billion came from the domestic trade component. Contribution receipts for the month of June 2024 amounted to €129.121 billion, up by €2.140 billion (+1.7%) compared to the corresponding month of the previous year. Inps contribution receipts amounted to €117.630 billion, up by €1.333 billion (+1.1%) compared to 2023.

The Bankitalia figure

On 16 August, it was the Bank of Italy that certified the good revenue trend: 'In June, tax revenues recorded in the state budget amounted to EUR 42 billion, an increase of 9.9 per cent (EUR 3.8 billion) compared to the corresponding month of 2023,' a note from Via Nazionale had noted. "In the first half of 2024," Bankitalia had further indicated, "tax revenues amounted to 248.8 billion, up 7.5 per cent (17.5 billion) compared to the same period last year.

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