Stellantis falls after accounts. Europe margins low and North America disappoints

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor)- Stellantis in free-fall at Piazza Affari, with the stock coming close to a 10% drop after its first-quarter accounts, which nonetheless marked a return to profitability, confirmed guidance and posted an almost threefold increase in adjusted operating profit, exceeding analysts' estimates, thanks to growth in vehicle sales in all regions, and particularly in its key North American market.

The market reaction is linked on the one hand to the disappointment over the margins in North America (which improved markedly but according to analysts were 'inflated' by one-off items) and on the other hand to the strong drop in adjusted net profit (Aoi) in the Enlarged Europe region (EUR 8 million in Q1 compared to EUR 292 million in the same period 2025) with the Aoi margin falling to 0.1% from 2.1%. As the experts at Air Capital explain, "there are many one-off items, such as tariffs refunds in the US", with the company reducing its estimate of the impact of tariffs for 2026 from EUR 1.6 billion to EUR 1.3 billion, thanks to a positive effect of around EUR 400 million related to expected refunds after the rejection of the measures by the Supreme Court. In addition, for Oddo the results in North America are lower than expected, which 'confirms that restructuring will take time' and that 'hopes for an accelerated recovery are diminished'. Moreover, as the experts of Equita point out, 'at divisional level the main driver is North America, while the other geographic areas are deteriorating. The Enlarged Europe region, on the break even side, remains the special watch'.

Against this backdrop, the stock fell to a daily low of EUR 5.95, the same value as at the end of March. The shares, which had attempted to rebound in the first part of April encouraged by the positive outlook provided by the group also in view of the presentation of the new plan on 21 May, failed to get back on track and gave up 15.7% in the last week and almost 35% so far in 2026. In general, however, analysts liked the accounts as a whole: Banca Akros speaks of 'solid development of key Kpi', performance indicators, Intermonte of 'better-than-expected results, mainly due to lower industrial costs, while volume/mix and pricing were broadly in line with expectations', and Equita points out that 'in the first quarter the recovery in both year-on-year and sequential operating levels came in even better than expected, driven by volume growth' and speaks of 'cash absorption (typical of the first quarter) being worse than expected, but we believe that confirmation of an improving trend prevails'. And indeed, the company returned to profit with a net profit of EUR 377 million, compared to the red of EUR 387 million in the same period last year, and reported revenues of EUR 38.132 billion, up 6%, albeit slightly below the EUR 38.4 billion predicted by the consensus. Adjusted operating income (Aoi) came in at EUR 960 million, up 194%, with a margin of 2.5%, up from 0.9% previously. Furthermore, 'supported by a solid balance sheet and improving fundamentals, Stellantis started 2026 on a solid footing. Consistent with this improved financial performance, the company has confirmed its financial guidance for 2026', expecting mid-single digit net sales growth, a low-single digit Aoi margin, improved industrial free cash flow generation compared to the previous year, and sequential growth from the first to the second half of the year. The company also expects positive industrial free cash flow in 2027.

The CEO, Antonio Filosa, explained that the first quarter numbers 'reflect the results of the actions taken to put the group back on a path of sustainable and profitable growth'. And it is precisely the CEO, who will speak in the customary call to explain the accounts to the market, who will be able on the one hand to clarify what did not meet market expectations in the first-quarter accounts, but above all to outline the future picture, in anticipation of Investors Day in May. It must be said that the quarter's results also confirm that it is the United States that is leading the return to profitability (North America saw revenues of EUR 16.11 billion, up from EUR 14.469 billion in 1Q2025, and adjusted operating profit of EUR 263 million, up from negative EUR 542 million, with a margin of 1.6%, up from -3.7%).