Stellantis rears its head again, focus on registrations and outlook 2026

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Reduced from a series of declines (-4.6% yesterday and -6.7% in total in the last five sessions), Stellantis is trying to raise its head, in a Ftse Mib that is hovering just above parity. Giving breath to the stock are the data on registrations in Europe in November: while it is true that those of the French-Italian group fell by 2.7% in the month and 4.5% in the 11 months, worse than the market (in Europe +2.4% in the month and +1.9% in the 11 months), it is also true that analysts see some positive signs, which may prelude a recovery in 2026: for example, observers point out the excellent performance of some of the group's brands, such as Fiat (new registrations +16.1%) and Citroen (+13.7%), and the fact that, despite the slowdown in November, the fourth quarter is heading towards an estimated growth of around 1%.

Moreover, as Intermonte analysts explain, the numbers are influenced by "a more challenging basis of comparison than in October when the figure was up by 5%" and the data are in any case "consistent with what was already reported by the main European countries at the beginning of the month". The performance of Stellantis, as well as that of other car manufacturers, is inextricably linked to the European electrification and decarbonisation path, which faces numerous obstacles. Although, according to Acea, 'hybrid-electric vehicles are the most popular type of power supply among buyers, with plug-in hybrids continuing to gain momentum', the debate on the way forward has taken on the tones of open confrontation.

The European Commission last week proposed changes to the regulation on harmful car emissions, maintaining the 2035 target but opening up greater flexibility, but the corrections, while welcomed as a positive sign, were judged by the major automotive groups to be late and insufficient. The CEO of Stellantis, Antonio Filosa, also pointed the finger at the lack of a 'roadmap, a clear roadmap for growth', which jeopardises investments, including those of Stellantis.

Last month Filosa had said that the group would multiply investment in Europe if Brussels relaxed the ban on petrol engines scheduled for 2035, but in light of the latest EU proposals, he backtracked: 'Without growth, it becomes very difficult to think about investing more. Without additional investment, it is difficult to build a resilient supply chain that is vital for European jobs, prosperity and security,' he told the Financial Times. Many fronts remain open, however, and it is likely that the real key to understanding the direction the group intends to take will be the presentation of the new Filosa 'signature' industrial plan, expected within the first half of the year. In the meantime, the next test will be the fourth quarter and 2025 accounts, due at the beginning of the year.