Stellantis rears its head again, analysts see solid 2030 plan and credible targets

Stellantis rebounded on the Italian Stock Exchange after yesterday's falls, which saw the stock drop as much as 8% before closing down 2%. Today, the carmaker's stock is advancing more than 3% as analysts and investors assess the new 'FastLane 2030' business plan. The company is focusing on brand optimisation, avoiding cuts but rationalising brands, and on capital efficiency,with investments planned at EUR 60 billion. Furthermore, to expand geographic coverage, Stellantis relies on partnerships, not forgetting the rationalisation of capacity in Europe. Financially, the group estimates revenue growth from EUR 154 billion in 2025 to EUR 190 billion by 2030. Furthermore, it expects an AoI margin (margin on adjusted operating profit) of 7% by 2030, with significant improvements in the short term. In 2025, the AoI margin was negative 0.5%, considering that last year's balance sheet was heavily impacted by extraordinary charges. Industrial cash flow will be positive in 2027 and is estimated to grow to EUR 6 billion in 2030. In addition, costs are expected to be reduced by EUR 6 billion by 2028 (compared to 2025), increasing further until 2030 due to the value creation programme.

Looking to the short term, Stellantis has confirmed its 2026 guidance and, in the words of CFO Joao Laranjo, the company expects to achieve its targets 'despite rising raw material prices'. With regard to Italia, CEO Antonio Filosa ruled out plant closures: 'We will be able to improve our production capacity, reducing it by 800,000 units, without closing any plants, neither in Italia nor in other European countries, simply because we are able to share capacity with our partners,' he said, emphasising that Stellantis' Italia Plan is proceeding as planned.

"Overall, Capital Markets Day confirmed a coherent and pragmatic strategic reset, centred on greater customer focus, regional autonomy, disciplined execution and a clearer medium-term financial trajectory," comment Intermonte analysts, who point out that "targets appear credible", in line with expectations "and with potential upside relative to consensus, although execution on multiple fronts remains the main driver". The experts note how 'the recovery path is delayed by about a year compared to our initial expectations, but the plan remains consistent with an evolution towards mid-single digit margins and about 3 billion of free cash flow by 2028'. For this reason, Intermonte maintains "a constructive view" and has an 'Outperform' rating on the stock with a target price of €8.2.

According to Citi's experts, Stellantis has 'improved its understanding of its product strategy and set targets for 2028 that at least support the market consensus, while also confirming a positive free cash flow target, a minimum requirement for many investors'. However, investors expect evidence of an improvement in Aoi (adjusted operating profit).

Banca Akros analysts are also satisfied with the plan, considering it 'solid (especially in terms of free cash flow generation) and plausible'. Moreover, the experts point out, 'the ability to execute will be the key element to allow a revaluation of the stock, given the intrinsic complexity of the new plan'.