Stock exchanges, May rises amid AI fever and oil slump. Milan +3.7% and Wall Street record

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - The ups and downs of the negotiations in Iran - with an agreement that in the last few hours seems closer -, the uncertainty over the impact of the conflict on the economy and central bank decisions. And again, the profits of the quarterly earnings season and the renewed confidence in AI and chips that has returned to boost confidence in equities. These are the ingredients that characterised May in the global markets, a month that closed on an upward trend for all the main continental indices. In particular, the biggest risers in Europe were Milan (+3.7%), thanks to a surge in Avio (+36.6%) and St. John's (+28.2%). Frankfurt (+3.4%) and Madrid (+3.3%) followed on the podium. Amsterdam also finished with a 2.1% haul, while London (+0.3%) and Paris (+0.8%) lagged further behind.

Turning to equities, the return of the AI fever favoured the rush of tech stocks (+11.5% the European sector sub-index). In Milan, St. John's chips benefited (+28.2%), which also took advantage of the long wave of the quarterly report at the end of April, but also Prysmian (+15.7%), by virtue of its link with the artificial intelligence infrastructure sector, data centres in primis. On the other hand, the positive momentum in the defence sector and the expectation for Space X's stellar IPO sent Avio (+36.6%) into orbit, the best stock in the FTSE Mib for the month with +19.3% in the last week alone. The accounts also supported Diasorin (+14.7%), despite the setback following the presentation of the 2030 Plan. The quarterly report and 2026 guidance also supported Amplifon (+14.7%).

Turning to the opposite side of the list, Nexi (-13.3%) with the market watching for movements in the shareholding structure. Instead, accounts weighed on Campari (-11.1%) for the month, while Inwit lost 7.5% and Bper 7.3%. Finally, Saipem (-10.6%) suffered from thebackward leap in oil prices. In May, the Wti lost 15.9%, while the Brent dropped 19.4%, the steepest monthly decline since March 2020.

The European stock exchanges, closed the week with moderate rises, while continuing to monitor the news on the agreement to extend the ceasefire, which is currently under consideration by US President Donald Trump. Against this backdrop, Milan (+0.4%) regained the 50-thousand-point mark, thanks to purchases in the consumer and construction sectors favoured by the winds of peace. Meanwhile, Wall Street also made good progress, withthe S&P 500 poised to finish near all-time highs and with thelongest string of weekly rises (nine) since 2023.

Returning to the possible Iran deal, Trump is expected to meet shortly with his staff in the Situation Room to 'make a final decision', according to the president himself on Truth. While he did not go into the substance of the agreement, he did say, however, that "the extraordinary and unprecedented US naval blockade" of the Strait of Hormuz "will now be lifted". He then returned to the issue of enriched uranium, explaining that he had asked Iran to 'agree' not to possess a nuclear weapon. It is true that investors now expect everything from the tycoon. "The deal is largely discounted by the markets," said Tom Essaye of The Sevens Report, speaking to Bloomberg, "Confirmation should not cause a sharp rally. However, 'even if the deal is rejected' there would be no hysterical reaction in the market, but there should be 'a modest decline'. On the macro front, iPMay data confirmed rising inflation in France, Italia and Spain, fuelling expectations of an ECB rate hike next month.