Markets

Stock market, Greenland scares but Milan (-1.3%) closes without shocks. Record gold

Positive Leonardo and Mps. Investors abandoned riskier assets and turned towards safe haven assets, so gold and silver touched new highs. Overseas Wall Street is closed for holidays. Oil and gas down

by Chiara di Michele and Ivan Torneo

La Borsa, gli indici del 19 gennaio 2025

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor)- A difficult session ended in the red for the European stock exchanges, which felt the brunt of Trump's new tariffs threats against countries opposingUS plans on Greenland. The lists, orphaned by the beacon of Wall Street (closed for holidays, but with futures also negative here), all ended with a minus sign, with Milan down 1.3%, without excessive shocks, also considering that Italy is not part of Trump's new 'black list'. Over the weekend, the tycoon threatened the introduction of customs tariffs of 10% - which could rise to 25% in the future - against the eight countries that have sent troops to the Arctic island, "effectively reopening the trade war between the US and the EU", noted the economists at Ing. And today he pressed on: "I no longer feel obliged to think exclusively about peace" given that I was denied the Nobel Prize "for stopping eight more wars".

European leaders will meet in an extraordinary summit in Brussels on Thursday, but are already considering counter measures. "The direct economic impact of tariffs is not the central element," note Equita analysts. "The risk is rather of a geopolitical nature, at a time when markets are coming off a strong performance and are therefore more susceptible to profit-taking. In response, European countries are talking of a 'dangerous downward spiral' and, according to rumours, are considering $93 billion measures against the US. In this context, investors are abandoning riskier assets and taking refuge in safe havens such as precious metals, which continue to set new records.

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All other European stock markets were also negative: Frankfurt closed at -1.2%, Paris at -1.8%, London at -0.4%, Madrid -0.1% and Amsterdam at -1.7%. In macro terms, it will be a week packed with data including, on Thursday, the US November Pce, the Federal Reserve's preferred indicator for measuring inflation. Friday, however, will be the turn of the Pmi indices of the major economies.

Leonardo soars at Piazza Affari

Few stocks were in the green at Piazza Affari, including Leonardo (+1.6%), on the back of European defence sector gains. Purchases were made on Inwit (+1.2%) and Diasorin (+1.1%), while Mps (+0.9%) also closed on a positive note, bucking the banking sector trend after the Caltagirone Group rejected press reports of a clash with CEO Luigi Lovaglio. The bank pointed out that the board of the Siena-based institution is currently undergoing an internal discussion on the issues related to the industrial plan required by the ECB, in addition to the list of the board of directors for renewal. Technology suffered with St (-4.7%), with sales hitting Amplifon (-6.2%) and Brunello Cucinelli (-3.4%) in particular.

Outside the main basket, eyes were on Ferretti (-0.3%) after Kkcg Maritime announced the launch of a voluntary partial tender offer for up to 52,132,861 Ferretti shares, with the aim of increasing its stake from 14.5% to 29.9% of the company's share capital.

FMI files 2026 Italian GDP estimate at +0.7%, in 2027 it rises to +0.7%

The Italian GDP growth estimate will be 0.7% both this and next year. This is indicated by the new IMF estimate, which in October indicated 0.8% this year and 0.6% in 2027. In Germany the forecast indicates 1.1% this year (adjusted upwards by 0.2%) and 1.5% next year (confirmed); in France 1% (+0.1% from the previous estimate) and 1.2% (confirmed); in Spain 2.3% (+0.3%) and 1.9% (+0.2%). Among these large EU economies, the Italian GDP would be the only one to slow slightly this year compared to the October forecast. The headline inflation rate will decline from an estimated 4.1% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026 (vs. the October forecast at 3.7%) and further to 3.4% in 2027 (same as the previous estimate). In the euro area, headline inflation in 2026 and 2027 will be around 2%, while core inflation is expected to fall to this level in 2027

Gold and silver touch new highs

Gold and silver prices reached new highs, increasingly safe haven assets after US President Donald Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs as of 1 February on the eight European countries that have come out against US control of Greenland. Added to this is the response to Trump's announcement by the European Union, which is considering counter tariffs of 93 billion. Thus spot gold stood above $4,670 an ounce after an intraday high of $4,677.82, while the futures advanced as much as 1.9% to $4,683.14. Silver also climbed, after hitting a high of $94.08, now trading close to $94 an ounce. Platinum rose 0.77% to $2,350 while palladium fell 0.5% to $1,795.3.

Euro/dollar at 1.16, down oil

On the currency market, the dollar slipped to 1.164 to the euro from 1.1598 at the close on Friday. The greenback also weakened against the yen, to 158.1 (from 158.08), while the euro/yen ratio was at 184 (from 183.33). On the energy front, oil prices lost ground, with Wti for March close to $59.4 per barrel and Brent crude with the same maturity in the $64 area. Natural gas trailed in Amsterdam after last week's rally: on the Ttf platform the benchmark contract was down 3.5 per cent in the €35.5 per megawatt-hour area.

BTp, spread widens to 64 points, 10-year yield drops to 3.45%

There was a slight widening of the spread between the BTp and Bund after the differential last week updated its lowest level in more than 15 years. The yield on the benchmark Italian ten-year BTp, maturing on 1 February 2036, was stable compared to the 3.46% at which it had ended trading in Friday's session. The spread also remained at 62 points, stable from 62 at the previous close.

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