Stock exchanges, traders remain optimistic. Stability with good quarterly reports
78% of the respondents in October expect that equity indices will not fall in the next six months. Confidence remains in the good performance of the spread between Btp and Bund. Gold is primary safe haven asset in times of uncertainty
(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Financial market participants remain optimistic about the performance of global stock markets over the next six months. According to the survey conducted in October by Assiom Forex, in collaboration with Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor, 78% predict that stock markets will not fall from their current values between now and April 2025.
More specifically, 42%, in line with 41% in the September survey, expect indexes to remain stable. At the same time, "the share of those who expect an upturn is rising (from 34% to 36%) and that of those who fear a downturn is falling (from 25% to 22%), supported by thegood results of the first quarterly reports published," commented Massimo Mocio, president of Assiom Forex.
For 47% traders euro/dollar stable, but single currency slows down
For the majority of traders polled in October, the euro will not fall in the next six months, but will slow its upward movement against the dollar. 47% (up from 39% in September), indicate a stable exchange rate between the euro and the dollar, but the share of those who see an appreciation of the single currency against the greenback is drastically reduced, from 45% in September to 29% in October, with an increase (from 16% to 24%) of traders indicating a depreciation of the euro. "The euro weakened slightly in October, moving between 1.173 and 1.153, hitting its lowest level since early August," Mocio commented. "The move reflects the Fed's second rate cut in 2025, which is already expected, and a more cautious stance in the upcoming meetings, also aided by the scarcity of data due to the continuing shutdown" of the US government.
Spreads below 100 basis points in the next six months
Traders remain confident about the good performance of the spread between Btp and Bund. For 73% of respondents, the spread between Italian and German government bonds in October will remain between 50 and 100 basis points over the next six months. This figure is slightly down from 78% in September, but still 'very high', Mocio notes. The share of those who see a spread between 100 and 150 basis points remains stable (22%), while a residual minority (5%) returns to indicate an increase to 200 basis points. "The BTP-Bund spread fell to its lowest level since 2010, approaching 75 basis points, supported also in October by the successful sixth issue of the Btp Valore, which raised EUR 16.5 billion from retail investors".
Gold remains primary safe haven asset in times of uncertainty
The rise of gold, which updated its all-time highs in October, is mainly due to its role as a safe haven asset in an unstable environment. This is the view of 72% of respondents. Only 28 per cent attributed the yellow metal's rally to a structural shift in portfolios towards commodities. "October saw the p continuation of gold's rally (+50% since the start of the year), with new all-time highs in the first half of the month and a slight correction in the second, until it stabilised around $4,000 an ounce," explains Mocio. "The decline reflects the strengthening of the dollar and uncertainty about the Fed's next moves."
