Stock exchanges, traders point to new rises and Fed cuts. But the AI knot remains

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Fears for the resilience of the AI sector, along with continuing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, will accompany markets in the coming months. However, stock exchanges will be able to withstand the shock and consolidate gains. This is the sentiment that prevails among Assiom Forex traders, interviewed in February 2026 in the usual monthly survey conducted by the association in collaboration with Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor. 49% of traders expect rising prices, compared to 43% of those interviewed in January. More specifically, 44% (up from 41%) indicate changes between +3% and +10%, while 5% (up from 2%) expect increases of over ten percentage points. Bets on a stability of the markets fell sharply (from 48% to 37%). Consequently, the share of those expecting a decline also rose: from 9% to 14%. Of these, 13% (up from 7%) indicate losses in the range of -3% to -10%, while 1% (up from 2%) expect indices to fall sharply by more than 10%. "Assiom Forex's February survey shows that the majority of respondents remain optimistic about equity markets, but uncertainties about the impact of artificial intelligence are increasing the dispersion of expectations," commented Massimo Mocio, president of Assiom Forex.

Headwinds continue to blow against the dollar, against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions, doubts about the sustainability of US debt and divisions within the Fed, which awaits the arrival of the new chairman, Kevin Warsh, next May, when Jerome Powell's term expires. 48% of respondents expect a further strengthening of the euro against the greenback. Percentage up more than ten points from 39% in the January survey. The share of those expecting an unchanged trend in the exchange rate between the two currencies remained substantially stable (34% from 32%). At the same time, the share of those forecasting a weakening of the euro fell significantly, from 29% to 18%. "In January, the euro/dollar exchange rate registered an increase in volatility, moving in a range between 1.160 and 1.204," says Mocio, pointing out that "expectations of an appreciation of the European currency against the dollar are strengthening.

With the expected change at the top of the Federal Reserve, financial market participants are expecting a more accommodative monetary policy from the US central bank. "After numerous rumours and a long wait by the markets, US President Donald Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Governor of the Federal Reserve. According to our sample of respondents, 64% believe that the new Fed Chairman's orientation will be towards further rate cuts, explains Mocio. On the other hand, 36% of traders anticipate a restrictive monetary policy in light of his 'hawkish' reputation on inflation. A position, however, that - as the majority of respondents believe - has softened over time.

Confidence continues to prevail among financial market participants in the outlook for the spread.For 85% of the respondents in February, in line with the polls of recent months, the spread between Italian and German government bonds will remain at current levels, in the range of 50 to 100 points between now and August. The percentage of those expecting a spread between 100-150 points is rising slightly (from 9% to 15%). No trader believes that the spread between Italian BTPs and the German Bund will return to between 150-200 points. The Btp-Bund spread has not been above 200 since last June. "The Btp-Bund spread remains close to its lowest level since 2008," notes the president of Assiom Forex, emphasising that "the Treasury's intense issuance activity in the early months of the year, together with the success of the first syndicated transactions, has sustained the differential's performance. Expectations remain favourable'.