Stock exchanges, cyclone Trump increases uncertainties. Banks also in the spotlight in 2025

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - The bursting onto the scene of Donald Trump's trade policies dampens optimism and increases operators' caution on stock market trends in the coming months. According to the customary monthly survey conducted by Assiom Forex among its associates in collaboration with Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor, in February the percentage of those expecting stable or rising markets in the first half of the year fell to 83% (from 87% in January). At the same time, the share of traders who do not expect any further gains rose to 62% from 57% in January, in a context in which many markets are travelling at highs. In more detail, for 45% of respondents the stock exchanges will remain firm over the next six months, with a maximum change of 3% in either direction, while 36% expect new rises, which for 2% will be in double figures. This rises to 17% (from 13% in the previous survey) of respondents who expect declines (ranging between -3% and -10%).

"This month, uncertainty regarding the impact of US tariffs on the economy and on the accounts of companies and households is being significantly reflected in the sentiment of market participants," comments Massimo Mocio, president of Assiom Forex. "It is not surprising that 62% of those interviewed in February said they did not expect further growth in the main stock market indices in the next six months and took a more cautious attitude than in the past."

The financial sector will continue to be a driver of equity markets in 2025. This is the view of 71% of respondents, according to whom, banks will continue to catalyse investors' attention. However, the market will monitor two central aspects:the evolution of the interest margin, in a context of falling ECB rates, and possible consolidation scenarios in light of announced takeover deals. Only 29% believe that the sector could lose its appeal this year. In 2024, lending institutions have put the wheels in motion in the wake of the re-opening of the sector's resurgence.

No recovery of the euro, but no further upward movement of the dollar either. These are the expectations for the coming months that emerge from the survey. Compared with a month ago, the percentage of those who expect the current balance of power between the two currencies to be maintained rose from 28% to 40%, while 20% of respondents (up from 33% in January) expect the euro to strengthen. Another 40% of traders indicate a weakening of the single currency against the greenback, in line with 39% in January. "Despite the currently asynchronous monetary policies, between a paused Fed and an ECB that continues in the rate normalisation process, 60% of traders remain convinced that, at least between now and next summer, the value of the euro should not fluctuate excessively from current levels," Mocio argues. 'Therefore, they consider any appreciation of the greenback as a result of the new trade policy inaugurated by Washington to be moderate'.

Calm continues to prevail in the spread market with the possibility of a further narrowing of the spread between 10-year BTPs and Bunds of similar duration. According to 82% of respondents (from 77% in the previous survey), the spread will remain stable in the current range of 100 to 150 points over the next six months. Moreover, for 11% (up from 5% in January) the differential could fall below 100 points (in the 50-100 point range) and the sample of those who see it sailing above 150 points narrows from 17% to 6%. Only 1% indicated an increase above 200 basis points. "Neither geopolitical uncertainty," notes Mocio, "nor any future inflationary pressures seem to affect the trend of the Btp-Bund spread