Stock exchanges, cautious traders with eyes on AI. Navigating by sight in the coming months

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Stock exchanges will be mostly firm in the coming months, in light of the highs reached during the year at a global level. But we are navigating on sight in a still uncertain macroeconomic and geopolitical environment. According to the November survey conducted by Assiom Forex in cooperation with Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor, 45% of traders believe that stock markets will remain at their current levels (variations between -3% and +3%) between now and May, while the proportion of those who expect markets to rise (with variations between +3% and +10%) has dropped by 10 points (from 35% in October to 26%). At the same time, fears of a drop in equity indices increased from 22% to 29%. This is "also due to the high valuations achieved by stock indices during the year," commented Massimo Mocio, president of Assiom Forex, noting the "considerable" drop in bets on further stock market gains.

Financial market participants are betting on the stability of the euro: 85% believe that the exchange rate between the single currency and the dollar will not fall from current values. More specifically, 56% of those surveyed in November (up from 47% in October) expect the euro/dollar exchange rate to remain stable over the next six months, while the share of those who indicate an appreciation of the single currency is confirmed at 29%. At the same time, bets (from 24% to 15%) on a strengthening of the dollar decreased. "The euro strengthened slightly in November, moving between $1.163 and $1.148," says Mocio, explaining that the movement reflects the prospects of a rate cut by the Fed at its meeting on 10 December. He also notes that 'none of the respondents expect a sharp fall or rise in the euro'.

Confidence in the spread between Btp and Bund continues to prevail. For 73% of the respondents (in line with the October survey), the spread between Italian and German government bonds - which opened at 70 basis points today, 10 December - will remain below 100 points over the next six months (in the 50-100 point range). 26% (from 22%) of those surveyed expect a spread between 100 and 150 basis points, while the share of those who indicate it between 150-200 points is reduced to 1% (from 5%). "The BTP-Bund spread in November fell to its lowest level since 2010, approaching 70 basis points," Mocio noted, pointing out that this trend was supported by "Moody's upgrade, which raised Italy's rating from Baa3 to Baa2, citing greater political stability and policy decisions that reinforce the effectiveness of economic and budgetary reforms.

The month of November was marked by renewed fears about the high valuations of US technology giants. According to the survey, 63% of respondents believe that there is overconfidence in the sector and that revenues from artificial intelligence do not fully justify market prices. A minority, just over one in three (37%), considers these fears to be exaggerated, believing that despite some recent declines, there is no risk of a speculative bubble bursting in the AI sector. A positive sign in this regard, according to respondents, also came from Nvidia's solid quarterly results and good prospects for the end of the year.