Stock markets face quarterly tests: Europe advances on the back of the energy sector, whilst Italia looks ahead to 2027

Rising inflation, higher interest rates and political tensions do not yet appear to be affecting the corporate sector in Europe. The earnings season, set to get into full swing next week, seems, in fact, to have all the right ingredients to confirm the strength of corporate profits. The third quarter, which has just drawn to a close, could prove to be a crucial turning point in determining whether expectations of profitability growth are truly sustainable in the future and, above all, capable of justifying the prices reached on the stock markets.

At a continental level, the picture painted by analysts’ estimates compiled by LSEG I/B/E/S points to a sharp acceleration in profits, with a 21.9 per cent year-on-year increase expected for the companies comprising the pan-European Stoxx 600 index. Total profits could therefore reach €160 billion, with the energy sector once again leading the way, more than doubling (+124 per cent) its figures over the course of 12 months thanks to the persistent rise in commodity prices. Without this contribution, overall growth would in fact be significantly lower, at 8.4 per cent.

This picture is fully confirmed when looking at the whole of 2026, which, according to LSEG I/B/E/S projections, is set to close in Europe with aggregate profits of 889.3 billion, representing a further increase of 21 per cent compared with the previous financial year. Behind the energy sector – which, once again, takes the lion’s share with annual growth of 106.6 per cent – comes the cyclical consumer goods sector (+91.9 per cent), followed by basic materials (+37.6 per cent) and technology (+22.6 per cent). Growth was more modest, however, in the industrials (+14.9%), utilities (+9.4%), financials (+8.5%) and healthcare (+7%) sectors.

Italia fits squarely within this picture of general stability. The valuations compiled by Intermonte for Il Sole 24 Ore on the main listed companies in our country (around 120, accounting for 90 per cent of the total market capitalisation) confirm that total profits for 2026 are set to grow by 16 per cent, reaching 84.3 billion. And on the Milan Stock Exchange too, the real driving force behind the upward revisions was the energy sector, as demonstrated two days ago by Eni and its profits, which in the period between July and September actually quadrupled to 3.2 billion compared with twelve months earlier.

Even without this boost, the annual results for Italian listed companies would still show solid growth of just under 13 per cent, and Intermonte highlights in particular the favourable performance ofthe financial sector, which continues to benefit from a generally stable environment. “The interest rate effect continues to support net interest income, whilst loan impairment charges remain at modest levels,” confirms Alberto Villa, head of equity research at Intermonte, who expects very solid results from major banking institutions such as Intesa Sanpaolo and UniCredit from next week onwards. Looking ahead to 2027, the sector is also beginning to quantify the initial efficiency gains linked to the adoption of artificial intelligence, which is capable of streamlining back-office processes and reducing reliance on external consultancy budgets.