Stock markets: traders expect a period of stability, but concerns over the spread are resurfacing
The majority of respondents expect a temporary adjustment to ECB rates, with rises of up to 3 per cent in early 2027, followed by a gradual cycle of cuts in the second half of the year
(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Stock markets are expected to remain broadly stable over the next six months (March 2027), with no significant peaks or troughs. This is the forecast emerging from the September 2026 Assiom Forex survey, carried out in collaboration with Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor. 53 per cent of respondents expect share prices to remain unchanged (with fluctuations between -3 per cent and +3 per cent), compared with 39 per cent in the previous survey in August. 25 per cent expect gains (from +3 per cent to +10 per cent), compared with 23 per cent the previous month, whilst 22 per cent foresee falling prices (between -3 per cent and -10 per cent), compared with 35 per cent in August. Of these, the probability of sharp losses exceeding 10 per cent between now and next spring remains at 2 per cent.
“The September Assiom Forex survey shows that the majority of market participants expect share markets to remain stable at around current levels over the next six months. At the same time, the proportion of those expecting a rise has increased slightly, whilst the proportion of those forecasting a fall has decreased,” comments the association’s president, Massimo Mocio.
Spread: fears resurface, with 39 per cent of market participants expecting it to rise above 100 points in the coming months
Fears over the spread are resurfacing amongst financial market operators. After five months dominated by confidence, during which the majority of market participants predicted a spread between the BTP and the Bund of less than 100 basis points – peaking at 82 per cent in June 2026 – the proportion of those who now expect this threshold to be exceeded has doubled. In September, 39 per cent of respondents predicted a BTp-Bund spread of between 100 and 150 basis points, compared with 20 per cent in August, whilst the proportion expecting a spread of 50–100 basis points has fallen sharply (from 77 per cent to 57 per cent). Although this percentage remains in the majority, it must also be considered in the light of the period in which the survey was conducted, as, ‘the survey, which closed last week, does not reflect the further rise in long-term yields recorded in the last few days of September’, notes Mocio.
Foreign exchange: 43 per cent of traders expect the euro/dollar rate to remain stable
The euro/dollar exchange rate is expected to remain stable between now and spring 2027, following a month of weakness for the single currency. “In September, the euro weakened significantly against the dollar, slipping back to May 2025 levels: from 1.162 at the end of August, it closed the period at 1.134,” notes the chairman of Assiom Forex. Between now and March 2027, 43 per cent of respondents expect the euro-dollar exchange rate to remain stable, compared with 58 per cent in the previous survey. A strengthening of the euro is forecast by 41 per cent of traders (35 per cent in August), whilst 16 per cent (up from 7 per cent previously) expect it to weaken further.
ECB: 57% of market participants expect a temporary adjustment of up to 3% by early 2027
A temporary adjustment to interest rates, with a final tweak by early 2027, followed by a pause, before resuming with a gradual cycle of cuts in the second half of the new year. This is the forecast of the majority of Assiom Forex traders (57%) surveyed on the ECB’s monetary policy trajectory. ‘Regarding the ECB’s next moves between now and the end of 2027, following the latest 25 basis point rise that brought the deposit rate to 2.50 per cent, the majority of traders suggest that the rate could rise to as high as 3 per cent at the start of the new year, followed by a period of stability and then a series of cuts in the second half of 2027, which could bring the ECB rate back to between 2.25 per cent and 2.50 per cent,” explains Mocio. Just over one in three (35%), however, expects prolonged monetary tightening to combat persistent inflation, with another rise by the end of 2026, and a possible peak of between 2.75 per cent and 3 per cent, which is expected to remain unchanged throughout 2027. A clear minority (8%) forecast a pause and an early rate cut, namely, rates remaining at 2.50 per cent for the rest of 2026 and the start of easing as early as the first half of 2027, driven by a faster-than-expected fall in core inflation.
