Stock markets: traders expect a positive six months. Just one ECB rate rise before the summer
40% of respondents expect prices to rise between June and November 2026, whilst only 14% anticipate a fall. 64% believe the European Central Bank will raise rates at its meeting on 11 June and take no action in July. The majority also expect the euro to recover against the dollar
(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Confidence continues to prevail regarding the performance of the financial markets, which have hit new records in recent months, starting with the FTSE MIB in Milan. The recent records set by . For 86% of Assiom Forex traders, stock markets will not fall from current levels over the next six months, and therefore at least until November 2026. This is according to the May survey carried out by the association of financial market traders, in collaboration with Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor. More specifically, the proportion of traders expecting stable stock markets over the next six months remains the majority, rising to 46% from 43% in the April survey. The proportion of those forecasting a further rise has also risen to 40% from 34%, whilst the proportion of those expecting a downturn has fallen to 14% (from 23%). The survey thus confirms the gradual recovery in investor confidence, following the signs of improvement that had already emerged in April, supported by the solid performance of the stock markets, driven in particular by the tech sector.
Euro recovers against the dollar; 64% believe the ECB will raise rates in June 2026 but not in July
In the foreign exchange market, traders’ expectations are almost evenly split: 48% expect the euro to strengthen (up from 31% in April), whilst 43% expect it to remain stable (down from 51%). Only 9% of respondents expect the single currency to weaken against the US dollar (down from 18% the previous month). The Assiom Forex survey comes at a particularly delicate time for the monetary policy of the eurozone, with the ECB called upon to assess the risks of inflationary pressures in the coming months, in light of recent energy tensions linked to geopolitical instability in the Middle East. When asked about the next two meetings of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council before the summer break, 64% of respondents expect a rate hike in June, but no action at the subsequent meeting in July. Only a minority of 11% expect two rate rises between next week’s meeting and the one in July. By contrast, 25% do not expect the Eurotower to tighten monetary policy.
Traders are banking on the stability of the spread
There is a growing conviction among financial market operators that the spread between Italian government bonds (BTp) and German government bonds (Bund) will remain stable. According to the Assiom Forex survey, 76% of respondents expect a spread between Italian and German government bonds of between 50 and 100 basis points over the next six months (June–November 2026), compared with 64% in the previous survey in April. The proportion of traders indicating a range of between 100 and 150 basis points has fallen further: from 33% in April to 21% last month. This is a sharp drop from the 57% recorded in March. The percentage of those who expect the spread to rise above 150 points remains stable at 3%.
