Sudan, blame-shifting with Ethiopia. US blitz on Eritrea sanctions

The conflict stemmed from disagreements between the two generals al-Burhan and Mohammed Dagalo known as 'Hemetti', the little Mohammed, respectively leading the regular army and the paramilitaries of the Rapid Support Forces. The clashes started in Khartoum and spread to the rest of the third largest African country, creating a de facto split in Sudan between the south-west under the control of the paramilitaries and a centre-east administered by the regular army. Today, fighting is mainly concentrated in the Kordofan and Blue Nile regions, with a robust growth in the use of drones. The latest air raid hit Khartoum airport on 4 May, shattering the - relative - quiet that had enveloped the capital in recent months.

The accusations made by the military authorities are not unprecedented. The government has already accused the Emirates of supporting the Rsf paramilitaries, an accusation that led to a lawsuit for 'complicity' in the genocide of the black population of Darfur at the International Court of Justice in The Hague (Netherlands).

A Reuters investigation and a study by Yale University in the US documented the involvement of Ethiopia's leader Abiy Ahmed, revealing the training of Rsf troops within the country's borders and logistical supplies to militias.

The ministry's lunge may accelerate the escalation, increasing a risk already foreseen by some analysts: the expansion of the conflict on a regional scale, calling in actors who have acted mainly by proxy. One of the most feared horizons was that of an expansion to the west, beyond the borders of a Chad already permeable to migratory flows arriving from Sudan. Today's diplomatic sparks could direct it further east, towards the Horn of Africa and the Gulf.

The tensions triggered by the Sudanese jihad represent an 'important step' and can 'exacerbate regional polarisation', explains Federico Donelli of the University of Trieste. On the one hand, says Donelli, the "perception" of an axis between the Emirates and Ethiopia is reinforced, with "Israel in the background". On the other, the harmony between Sudan and Egypt can be consolidated, in a security key and against the backdrop of further players such as Djibouti, Saudi Arabia and Eritrea itself, fresh from the sanctions relief from the US. The perspective, says Donelli, is however that of fluid alliances, capable of 'making a political solution more difficult and increasing the possibility of escalation in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea'.

At its roots remains the quarrel between Sudan and Ethiopia, now heading for an alarming escalation. "Both sides believe that the other is supporting their armed adversaries. The war in Sudan is becoming increasingly difficult to contain within national borders'.