Defence

Superhunting, France-Spain and Italia-Germany-Uk- Japan: the possible moves

The Fcas project has stalled several times due to disputes in planning and design between the French manufacturer Dassault and the Airbus group, which represents German and Spanish interests

by Andrea Carli

Difesa, Italia verso il caccia di sesta generazione

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

The game for the realisation of the sixth-generation fighter, a strategic project in the defence landscape, has seen substantial new developments in the last period, which could change the balance on the field. The 'sixth-generation' system involves a manned piloted aircraft, flanked by autonomous drones and integrated into a system of interconnected systems.

There are two main projects. On the one hand, the Future Combat Air System (Fcas); on the other, the Global Combat Air Programme (Gcap). The first involves France, Germany and Spain; the second Italy, the United Kingdom and Japan. All at present, but the balance could change. In particular, in the last period Germany has expressed more than one perplexity about the project that sees it alongside France and Spain. While there has been no shortage of hints about the possibility that Berlin might leave the Fcas and enter the other project, the Gcap. The first rumours to this effect circulated, with greater insistence, after the intergovernmental summit between Italia and Germany on 23 January.

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The Future Combat Air System

The project was launched in 2017 by Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel to strengthen European defence. With a budget for implementation estimated at around €100 billion, it concerns not only aircraft, but an entire system of aircraft, both manned vehicles and unmanned drones, which should work together for combat and reconnaissance. Spain, which shares an equal share of 33 per cent with France and Germany, joined the programme in 2019.

The project has stalled several times due to disputes in planning and design between the French manufacturer Dassault and the Airbus group, which represents German and Spanish interests. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz seriously doubted its continuation. The Fcas ended up on a dead end. "We have a real problem on the requirements profile. And if we can't solve it, we won't be able to continue the project,' Merz made it clear in the podcast Machtwechsel. 'Concretely, in the next generation of combat aircraft, the French need an aircraft that can carry nuclear weapons and operate as aircraft carriers. Currently, we do not need this in the German army,' he added.

But if Germany is putting the brakes on the Future Combat Air System, France and Spain are keeping a straight face. A few hours later came the stance of the Elysée Palace: President Macron 'remains committed to the success of the project. The military needs of the three participating states,' it was emphasised, 'have not changed, and these included French deterrence and the other missions of the future aircraft from the outset. Given the strategic stakes for our Europe, it would be incomprehensible if industrial divergences could not be overcome, especially since we must collectively demonstrate unity and performance in all areas concerning industry, technology and defence'.

Madrid also took a position in favour of the continuation of the project. Spain 'remains fully committed' to the Future Combat Air System (Fcas), the Defence Ministry clarified. "Our country remains fully committed to the programme, based on the principles established by the countries (Germany, France and Spain) in the framework agreement signed in June 2019," the ministry indicated in a brief written statement in response to a question from Afp.

The Global Combat Air Programme

The other project is the Gcap: this is a strategic partnership launched in 2022 by Italy, the UK and Japan and their respective industries to collaborate on shared military and industrial objectives in the delivery of a next-generation combat aircraft capability. The combat aircraft, scheduled to enter service in 2035, will feature an intelligent weapon system, a software-based interactive cockpit, integrated sensors, and a next-generation radar capable of providing 10,000 times more data than current systems.

"In December 2022," explains a study by Iai, the International Affairs Institute, "the Tempest programme was transformed into a trilateral initiative with the entry of Japan alongside the United Kingdom and Italia, creating the Global Combat Air Programme (Gcap). Japan's entry was significant in view of its financial capacity, technological alignment and shared experience in the F-35 programme in which London and Rome also participate. In contrast, Sweden's exit was influenced by its preference for developing unmanned aircraft complementary to the Gripen, rather than committing to an entirely new manned platform. The emergence of the Gcap as a joint initiative between the UK, Italia, and Japan,' the document goes on to say, 'effectively ruled out any future merger with the Fcas programme that has since expanded to include Spain, given the divergence in military requirements, governance structures, and industrial priorities.

As far as Italia is concerned, the Iai explains, 'the Gcap will be complementary for a certain period to in-service platforms such as the Eurofighter and F-35, while in the long term it will replace the former. Italia has purchased a total of 118 Eurofighters, including the new Tranche 4 variants recently ordered, which will remain in service until the 1960s and will be interoperable with the Gcap. Italy's F-35 fleet is expanding, with plans to operate a total of 115 aircraft, increasing Italy's mastery of low-observable tactics. Around 2040, the Air Force is likely to operate more than 180 upgraded F-35s and Eurofighters in conjunction with the introduction of the Gcap, consolidating its position as one of the most advanced air forces in Europe.

The assumption that Germany will enter the Gcap

Could Germany join the Gcap? "We cannot say," replied the undersecretary of Defence, Isabella Rauti. "What we can say," she added, "is only that Germany has officially declared that it is no longer interested in the sixth-generation fighter programme with the French partnership, because this is of public evidence, but we cannot say what Germany's interests will be. Certainly the moment the only European project dedicated to these systems disappears, it is clear that the others become more attractive, and we cannot make any predictions.

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