Family Office

Super rich seeking yield with fixed income, US securities and artificial intelligence

Ubs global study of 320 family offices reveals strong concerns about war conflict, climate change, excessive state debt

3' min read

3' min read

The rich are again favouring fixed income from more developed countries and more balanced allocations, confidence in active management is growing, and artificial intelligence (AI) is topping investment themes. Diversification and return are sought in alternative investments, which continue to form a significant part of portfolios. In the medium term, however, there is strong concern about the danger of a major geopolitical conflict, climate change and high debt levels. These are the main findings of the Ubs Global Family Office Report, the world's most comprehensive study of individual family offices.

Ubs Global Family Report

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Ubs surveyed 320 clients globally between 18 January and 22 March 2024 (it was 230 in 2023), representing households with an average net worth of $2.6 billion and covering over $600 billion in wealth. The report confirms itself as the most comprehensive and authoritative analysis of this important group of investors.

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The 2024 survey showed that family office portfolios have returned to a greater balance between bonds and equities. This shift, which perhaps fits a world of moderate inflation and falling interest rates, seems to reflect the rise in bond yields and is consistent with the moves heralded by last year's report. On average, family offices kept their largest regional allocations in North America (50%), over a quarter (27%) in Western Europe and 17% in Asia-Pacific or Greater China. Looking ahead, North America and Asia Pacific (excluding Greater China) are set to be the top destinations for additional allocations, with over a third intending to increase allocations in each of these regions over the next five years (38% and 35% respectively).

Active management to diverify

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Just as balanced portfolios seem to be making a comeback, so is active management. Amidst rapid technological changes, changing rate expectations and uneven growth, the increased dispersion of returns offers opportunities for active management. Nearly 4 in 10 (39%) family offices globally say they are relying more on manager selection and/or active management to improve portfolio diversification, a 4% increase since 2023.

On the alternative investment front, hedge funds are used by a third (33%) of family offices. From a thematic perspective, generative AI is the most popular investment theme, with more than three-quarters (78%) of family offices stating that it is likely to be an important investment area in the next two to three years.

The risks and fears

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Over a 12-month period, 58% of family offices are worried about the possibility of a major geopolitical conflict. There are also fears that central banks may reduce interest rates only slowly, with 37% of family offices stating that they fear an increase in interest rates and 39% a rise in inflation. Long-term concerns include geopolitical conflict (62%), climate change (49%) and the debt crisis (48%).

Sustainability Lighthouse

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Sustainability is becoming an increasingly important issue that affects not only the investment portfolios of family offices, but also the long-term outlook of operational activities. More than half (57%) of family offices with an operational business are already considering sustainability analyses for their operational activities or plan to do so in the future. As the topic of sustainability matures, family offices need more information and advice. According to 37% of the respondents, better data analysis to measure the impact of investments and/or business operations would help achieve sustainability and/or impact goals

The moves of European and Swiss family offices

Among European family offices, 38% believe that US real interest rates will hover around zero. Compared to their global peers, the percentage of family offices planning to change their strategic asset allocation in 2024 is highest in Europe (42%) and, on average, there is a strong domestic propensity to allocate portfolios in Western Europe (49%). Compared to their global peers, the percentage of family offices hedged against financial risks is highest in Europe (67%). Currently and in the next five years, European family offices are most concerned about a major geopolitical conflict (61% and 71% respectively).

Even 38% of Swiss family offices believe that US real interest rates will hover around zero. Compared to their global peers, they have the highest allocations, on average, to equities (29% developed markets, 2% emerging markets) and only 11% plan to change their strategic asset allocation in 2024. Swiss family offices have a strong domestic focus, allocating on average 54% of their portfolios to Western Europe and using precious metals to enhance portfolio diversification (34%). 76% of Swiss family offices are likely to invest in healthtech over the next two to three years. Within 12 months and over the next five years, Swiss family offices are most concerned about a major geopolitical conflict (62% and 71% respectively).

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