Superbonus in instalments: 12–14 billion is in the banks’ balance sheets

The spreading of the Superbonus tax credits, which can be offset in 2027, into instalments over the next ten years could cost banks around 3 billion in write-downs. This was revealed yesterday by the Director-General of the Italian Banking Association (ABI), Marco Elio Rottigni, in response to questions from MPs during the joint hearing of the Chamber of Deputies and Senate committees on the budget. Of the total 18 billion, credit institutions hold a share of between 70 and 80 per cent, with a value ranging from 12 to 14 billion.

“The measure would affect claims acquired on the basis of a schedule for their utilisation already laid down by law and would alter their economic and financial values; consequently, it would amount to a forced restructuring of government debt,” said Rottigni, pointing out that it represents ‘a risk to public debt’. The Director-General did not state this explicitly, but the issue that arises is whether the EBA rule would apply to the State; this rule, in the case of this type of restructuring, requires banks to reclassify the debtor as insolvent. “For banks, which must adopt international accounting standards and comply with stringent European prudential regulations, this would have significant negative effects on their income statements, balance sheets and liquidity, coupled with an additional cost linked to inflation,” he emphasised. The write-down of these receivables, in accordance with the EU rules on calendar provisioning, will have to be recognised in the 2026 financial statements. The liquidity problem, however, does not only affect banks. This provision poses ‘liquidity problems for businesses too’ that hold these tax credits, ‘and this risks worsening their creditworthiness’. Rottigni then pointed out that the measure concerning the Superbonus “contradicts the ruling of the Constitutional Court (judgement 111/2024), which considers it unlawful to affect companies’ economic calculations ‘now for then’”.

Doubts have been raised regarding the constitutionality of the various measures in the budget, which amount to around 7 billion over two years and which, he noted, are in addition to the 15 billion already demanded of the sector through the budgets approved in 2024 and 2025. The measure that hits hardest concerns IRAP, with the reduction in the deductibility of administrative expenses and depreciation from 90 per cent to 30 per cent. ‘This sharp reduction in deductibility would appear to imply that depreciation and other administrative expenses are not inherent to banking activities. Such a presumption would violate the principle of the effective capacity to pay tax (see, amongst others, Constitutional Court judgments No. 225 of 2005 and No. 10 of 2023). Furthermore, the hypothetical presumption would clearly conflict with the principles of reasonableness and proportionality. And it is important to note that the Constitutional Court has clarified that the legislature is not free to regulate the tax base as it sees fit; rather, it must be rationally linked to the taxable event (see Judgment No. 262 of 2020)’, Rottigni outlined the principles of case law, suggesting that this point would provide the most fertile ground for a potential challenge. The Director-General highlighted the distorting effects of the provision, which would place a heavier burden on smaller banks (which have a higher cost-to-income ratio than large banks).

Rottigni emphasised the negative impact the legislation would have on investment, not just in technology, security and digital services. ‘The proposed legislation would severely penalise expenditure related to banks’ physical presence through branches and financial offices, and would come on top of the already higher IRAP rates applicable to banks (+0.75 percentage points), which was subsequently increased by a further 2 percentage points by the 2026 Budget Act for the three-year period 2026–2028’. And furthermore. “A further aspect concerns tax-related cost components that represent a cost on the bank’s factors of production, such as non-deductible VAT, which is now only 30 per cent deductible for IRAP purposes” he observed, concluding by stating: ‘The ABI strongly advocates the need to identify improvements that reconcile budgetary objectives with the competitiveness, soundness and capacity of the banking sector to support households, businesses and public administrations, in accordance with the Constitution.’