Superbonus, new exemptions for earthquake and flood-affected areas under consideration

The 'generosity' of the relief, the repeated extensions, a system of controls that favoured the 'spread of opportunistic and fraudulent behaviour', and the granting of exemptions. It is also from here that the 'vulnus' by which the Superbonus has turned into a ballast for the public accounts, leaving 'a heavy legacy for the future'. The Parliamentary Budget Office raises the alarm and calls for this experience to be capitalised on in order to redesign the future facilities. In the meantime, Parliament is preparing new changes to the government's latest squeeze, including new exemptions for other areas hit by the earthquake or the involvement of municipalities in controls.

A spotlight is also shining across the Atlantic on the Superbonus, with the International Monetary Fund urging Italy to reduce debt. Growth, estimated at 0.7 per cent in 2024 and 2025, is set to fall to a trickle in 2026 (revised downwards to 0.2 per cent) with the Superbonus and Pnrr running out, warns the Fund. But action can be taken, and it is from debt that we must start: to reduce it, we must start with tax cuts, "many of them inefficient" such as the Superbonus, suggests the IMF, and eliminate those "loopholes" from the IRS and "numerous anti-inflation support programmes". The Superbonus, along with the facade bonus and, to a lesser extent, the Transition 4.0 business incentives "have had a marked impact on public accounts in recent years," the Public Accounts Authority points out in a memorandum to the Senate Finance Committee, which is examining the latest decree on the relief.

Superbonus and facade bonuses, in particular, have had a 'significant and growing' impact over time: the bar for the period 2020-23, according to the latest figures, has risen to around 170 billion. With a gap between results and expectations that is "macroscopic" in the case of the Superbonus, and "unprecedented" according to the Upb, which points to various elements that have contributed to the rise in spending: the generosity of the discount and the way in which it can be used, the widening of targets, extensions and derogations. At the expense is the debt. What was recognised in terms of accruals in the four-year period 2020-23 will mainly affect 2024-26, points out the Upb, which quantifies this 'heavy legacy': an average annual impact of 0.5 per cent of GDP in the three-year period 2021-23, rising to about 1.8 per cent in the following one. An experience, that of the Superbonus, from which "lessons must be learnt for the design of future subsidies", through selectivity mechanisms and a stop to automatisms.

Looking ahead, therefore, the suggested solution is "a monetary transfer" (a direct contribution to expenditure), modulated on the basis of families' economic conditions and the building's energy class, subject to prior authorisation and subject to an expenditure limit, or with subsidised loans. And in view of the forthcoming support measures for green homes, the Bank of Italy is also warning: the "criticalities" that have emerged with the Superbonus seem "to advise against the re-proposal in the future of the transferability of credits", if not in a "limited form" and "restricted to certain categories".

After the latest squeeze on the Superbonus, meanwhile, new exceptions are being studied. To propose them, for other areas affected by the earthquake than those for which an exception has already been made (starting with Emilia Romagna) or by the floods and for the Third Sector, are both the majority and the opposition with various amendments to the Superbonus decree. The deadline for submitting the proposed amendments is Wednesday 24 April, but on the table of the rapporteur, Giorgio Salvitti, the amendments are starting to arrive. They are also studying the possibility of involving, on a voluntary basis, the municipalities in the Superbonus site controls, guaranteeing them an economic return equal to 30% of any recovery. Nothing, however, has yet come of the possibility of extending the time for the utilisation of Superbonus credits from 4 to 10 years. A hypothesis on which, however, Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti has already said he is in favour. And which, according to Upb's calculations, would allow the debt to remain well below 140%.