Lugano

Switzerland: the ‘no’ vote wins in the referendum to cap the population at 10 million

The initiative, proposed by the UDC, a right-wing nationalist party, as an anti-immigration measure, was rejected in a referendum

by Lino Terlizzi

14 June 2026

Le relazioni tra la Svizzera e l'Unione Europea, pedine degli scacchi con bandierine Alamy Stock Photo

3' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

Lugano – Switzerland’s rejection of the initiative to cap the population at 10 million is a significant step, which removes the very real risk of a severe blow to relations with other countries, particularly the European Union, and therefore also with Italy. The initiative, proposed by the right-wing nationalist UDC as an anti-immigration measure, was rejected in a referendum by a margin of around 54% as the vote count neared its conclusion.

The ‘no’ campaign, backed by centrist and left-wing parties, as well as business associations and trade unions, has therefore completed its comeback. On a divisive issue such as immigration, in fact, the UDC had started with a lead according to many polls. Then, as the campaign progressed, the arguments highlighting the negative aspects of the initiative, both politically and economically, regained traction.

How the cantons voted

The major cities and French-speaking Switzerland played a significant role in the ‘no’ vote’s victory. In German-speaking Switzerland, with the exception of the major cities, the ‘yes’ vote fared better. In Italian-speaking Switzerland, the ‘yes’ vote won in Ticino, albeit by a narrow margin (50.7%), whilst in Graubünden (which has an Italian-speaking minority) the ‘no’ vote won with 51.5%.

In the Swiss Confederation, all the major parties are represented in the Government, and so is the SVP; however, the majority of the Government itself rejected its initiative. The same applies to the National Parliament, both chambers of which voted, by a large majority, to reject the initiative. However, on the issue of immigration, the balance of opinion among the electorate does not exactly mirror party lines, and so the fear was that, despite everything, a ‘yes’ vote might prevail. The outcome of the vote (with a turnout of around 58 per cent) was, however, in favour of a ‘no’.

Population figures

Switzerland has a population of around 9.1 million, with foreign residents – the majority of whom are European – accounting for 27% of the total. Since 2002, the population has increased by around 1.7 million, mainly due to immigration. The number of immigrants is linked to the labour market; both private companies and public sector organisations (particularly those in the healthcare sector) require foreign workers.

The nationalist right wanted to cap the resident population, stipulating that it should not exceed 10 million before 2050. If the figure reached 9.5 million before that date, certain restrictive measures would already have been introduced; once the 10 million mark was reached, Switzerland would have had to withdraw from international agreements, primarily affecting the Agreement on the Free Movement of Persons with the European Union, thereby effectively calling into question the other bilateral agreements with the EU and participation in the Schengen and Dublin agreements on security and asylum.

The centre and left-wing parties are satisfied

The centre and left-wing parties have expressed their satisfaction; the ‘no’ vote’s victory is not by a wide margin but is clear, and the risk of Switzerland leading a new wave of anti-immigration sentiment in Europe has been averted, with negative repercussions both in international political relations and in the economic sphere, for Switzerland’s partners as well as for Switzerland itself.

Economiesuisse, Switzerland’s largest business association, has welcomed the rejection of the initiative to cap the population at 10 million. Diplomatically, the association, whilst reiterating its support for the free movement of persons, also states that better use must be made of the potential of the local workforce and that asylum law must be applied consistently.

Economiesuisse, however, points out that the electorate supports the bilateral approach with the European Union and that the way is now clear for further consultations on the third round of bilateral agreements with the EU, covering both political and economic chapters. This is a new package of agreements drawn up by Bern and Brussels, which builds on the two previous ones and is also proving controversial in Switzerland. The majority in the Government and Parliament has so far moved towards approving the new Bilateral Agreements, whilst the SVP opposes them. Swiss voters will also be called upon to have their say on this. The outcome is uncertain, but it is certain that had the 10-million-franc cap won, the entire framework of relations with the EU would already have been called into question. Whereas now, although the negotiations remain difficult both in Switzerland and with Brussels, the bilateral approach remains in place.