Presidential

Harris-Trump: who has the advantage in the decisive states? What the data says

The picture of uncertainty dictated by the 'states in the balance' a few days before the vote

by Silvia Martelli

31 October 2024

3' min read

Key points

Midwest in the Balance: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin
Economic themes prevail in the Midwest
The Sun Belt: Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada
The Latin factor and the case of Puerto Rico
Financial market cheers for Harris?
Uncertain outcome

3' min read

With only a few days to go before the US elections, the battle for the White House is intensifying in the so-called 'swing states', i.e. those states that often swing between Democrats and Republicans and that will be decisive for the final outcome. Data provided by Finscience (a fintech brand of Datrix, an international ecosystem of AI-based software companies) for the page of Lab24 shows a picture of uncertainty in seven key states, while the campaign is fragmenting along economic and civil rights lines, particularly with regard to the Latino vote.

Midwest in the Balance: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin

Among the most contested states, Pennsylvania stands out. Alessio Garzonio, principal at Finscience, pointed out that here Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, had initially gained ground over Donald Trump, but the positive trend has stalled, leading to a head-to-head contest. "We've come to a virtually zero gap between the two candidates," Garzonio said, pointing out that Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes, may be the most relevant state in this election.

A similar argument applies to Michigan and Wisconsin, both historically Democratic but where Harris's lead has narrowed, creating a more competitive situation for Trump. Garzonio added that Trump has paid particular attention to the Midwest with recent events in Michigan and Wisconsin, "signalling how strategic he considers these states to be for his campaign."

Economic issues prevail in the Midwest

A key element is the weight of economic issues in the Midwest, where manufacturing and jobs are crucial. Garzonio explained that polls and discussions on social media indicate a widespread perception of Trump as a more reliable figure on these issues, despite Harris recently presenting a solid economic plan after being widely criticised for what was perceived as a lack of clear direction. It is precisely this perception of Trump's greater solidity on economic issues that may push some Midwestern voters towards the Republican candidate.

The Sun Belt: Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada

In contrast, in the southern US, Harris gained ground, especially in Georgia and North Carolina. "The latest data shows Harris at an all-time high in Georgia," Garzonio said, suggesting that the Democratic nominee could reverse course from 2020, when these states had swung. Nevada, though with only six electoral votes, also represents an area of improvement for Harris, fuelled by dissatisfaction among voters over Trump's conservative civil rights policies.

The Latin factor and the case of Puerto Rico

The Latino component, especially in states like Georgia and Florida, has become a crucial factor for Harris. Garzonio pointed out that recent election campaigns have been accompanied by an increase in social conversations about Latino issues, fuelled by the Puerto Rico controversy. Indeed, a negative comment by comedian Tony Hinchcliffe, who spoke at a rally for Trump in New York on Monday, reignited media interest and led Harris to step up his pro-Latino rhetoric. Voters of Puerto Rican descent, and particularly those in Florida and Georgia, could play a key role in such a balanced voting situation. "Harris is doing everything he can to win over this segment of the electorate," Garzonio said, in response to Trump's recent surge in support among Hispanics.

Financial market cheers for Harris?

A curious aspect, Garzonio adds, is the performance of stocks linked to the two candidates: 'At the moment, the performance of stocks associated with Kamala Harris outperforms that of Trump and even the S&P 500'. This could indicate that the market is betting on the Democrat's victory, although, as Garzonio notes, 'financial analysis is often based on polls, so the figure is indicative but not decisive'.

Towards an uncertain outcome

The race in the seven swing states is so balanced that, as Garzonio explains, there are many possible combinations: 'It is difficult to say with certainty how these states will swing. The reality is that they could go in one direction or the other without any big surprises, and the risk of an uncertain outcome is real'. With so much at stake, the uncertainty of the outcome could continue beyond election day, raising fears of a new episode of contestation like the one on 6 January 2021. A topic of discussion among Democratic supporters, although, according to Garzonio, it is unlikely to directly influence the vote.

The game for the White House will therefore be played on economic issues in the Midwest and civil rights and immigration in the South. The outcome of the swing states will be decisive, while Latinos could emerge as a decisive group.