PULSE - Europe beyond the beat

The crisis

Exodus of Syrian refugees, a challenge for post-Assad Europe

The fall of the Assad regime has brought millions of Syrian refugees to Europe. Now the scenario of returning home is uncertain

by Silvia Martelli (Il Sole 24 Ore) and Kim Son Hoang (Der Standard, Austria)

24 December 2024

3' min read

The fall of the regime of Bashar al-Assad is a crucial turning point for Syria and the millions of refugees who have left the country since 2011. At the moment, there are about 6.3 million Syrian refugees abroad - a figure that is equivalent to a quarter of the Syrian population estimated at the beginning of the year. In Europe, as well as in the rest of the world, the return of Syrian refugees to their homeland is therefore an issue that is raising profound questions both politically and humanitarian-wise.

The global context of the Syrian crisis

Since 2011, the Syrian civil war has driven millions of people to seek refuge in more than 137 countries. Most refugees are in Syria's neighbouring countries: Turkey (3.1 million), Lebanon (up to 1.5 million, including non-registered), Jordan (649,000) and Iraq (286,000). However, Europe has been a significant destination for many, with Germany leading the way (716,000 Syrian refugees) and other countries - such as Greece, Italy, Sweden and Austria - taking in significant numbers.

The European challenge: between integration and repatriation

The European Union faces a complex challenge in managing the fate of Syrian refugees after the fall of the regime. Although some political leaders have welcomed the prospect of return, conditions in Syria remain highly uncertain. Despite political change, destroyed infrastructure, economic instability and social tensions make repatriation a sensitive issue.

Germany: the weight of integration and the political debate

Germany is the main European country for receiving Syrian refugees, with more than 716,000 people. Here, integration has produced significant results: more than 100,000 Syrians have obtained German citizenship. But the massive arrival of refugees has been a determining factor in the rise of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland party, which openly criticises migration policies.

Recent calls for repatriation by some German politicians have raised concerns among well-integrated refugees. According to Gerald Knaus, a migration expert, possible deportations would be difficult to realise for legal and humanitarian reasons. Despite this, more than 47,000 Syrian asylum applications have been suspended, leaving thousands of people in a situation of uncertainty.

Austria: economic incentives and revocation of asylum status

Austria, with around 100,000 Syrians (including asylum seekers), adopted a controversial approach: the Austrian government initiated proceedings to revoke the asylum status of around 40,000 refugees, offering economic incentives of EUR 1,000 for voluntary repatriation. This measure has drawn criticism from human rights organisations, which point to the uncertainty over security in Syria.

According to Johannes Kopf, director of the Public Employment Service (AMS), Syrians who have integrated and found work are unlikely to leave the country. Currently, 23,988 Syrians are employed in Austria, representing just 0.6 per cent of the total workforce. The main sectors include automotive trade, catering and manufacturing.

Greece and Italy: pressure on southern borders

In Greece, some 9,500 Syrian asylum applications are awaiting a decision. The country, which played a crucial role as a gateway for refugees during the 2015 crisis, continues to manage significant logistical challenges in overcrowded reception centres. The recently adopted suspension of asylum procedures for Syrians risks creating further tensions in the camps and local communities.

Although Italy has received fewer Syrian refugees than Germany or Greece, it has been an important transit point. Italian migration policies have become more restrictive in recent years, with an increase in expulsions and voluntary returns. However, many Syrian refugees in Italy find themselves in a precarious legal and labour status, with difficulties in accessing structured integration pathways.

UNHCR's response

UNHCR estimates that up to one million Syrian refugees could return home by June 2025, either spontaneously or through organised programmes. To support this transition, the agency has launched an appeal to raise USD 310 million to provide assistance to returnees and local communities in Syria. However, the context remains critical: infrastructure reconstruction is still in its infancy and many returnees may not find adequate living conditions.

*This article is part of the Pulse project and was contributed by Kim Son Hoang (Der Standard, Austria)