Tariffs, ICE alarm: more than 6,000 Italian companies at risk for exports to the US exceeding 11 billion

Zoppas relaunches. Italy, he observes, is the sixth exporting country in the world, and points to the goal indicated to him by Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, who also spoke at the presentation of the report: to reach 700 billion and overtake South Korea in the world ranking. The president of Ice recalls how from 2019 to 2024 Italian exports grew by 30% and then "in two years +12% is feasible with the tools and logic of the country system.

"All the estimates for 2025-2026," Ice recalls, "have been revised downwards because of the aforementioned tariff tensions that, also due to the tight integration of the global economy, have a considerable impact on international trade, and which could trigger a reconfiguration of production chains, with a potentially multiplicative effect, undermining that climate of mutual trust that is indispensable for the functioning of the international trade system. "The resulting climate of uncertainty," reiterates the Agency for the promotion abroad and the internationalisation of Italian companies, "weighs on the prospects of the global economy, which is already exposed to numerous risk factors, including armed conflicts in various areas of the planet. This situation of uncertainty also affects companies, not only Italian ones. "The instability of the situation is also reflected in greater difficulty in obtaining reliable information on the level of tariffs and other protective measures actually introduced, with the result of complicating and discouraging business strategies and decisions".

Ice recalls that "the protectionist turn by the United States dates back to at least 2017, although it had not yet reached the current levels of unpredictability. Its negative effects, he adds, are not limited to bilateral trade relations, but affect the stability of the entire institutional architecture, both multilateral and regional, that regulates international trade and investment. These tariffs are contrary to the agreements signed by the United States and to the principle of non-discrimination, which is the basis of the multilateral trading system'.

How to cope with this situation? The document provides some insights. "Among the possible ways to manage the current phase of growing instability, we highlight the opportunity for the European Union, China and the other relevant players in the international economic system to pursue cooperative solutions, avoiding trade escalation dynamics. In this context, it seems a priority to promote shared strategies aimed at safeguarding and consolidating the existing multilateral architecture, based on rules and institutions that have historically fostered the integration of global markets'.

What was the health of Italy's exports before this upheaval? The answer is in the report: 'Italy's merchandise exports declined slightly in 2024 to EUR 623.5 billion (-0.4%), mainly due to a sharp fall in sales to Germany (-5%). However, sales abroad grew by +30% compared to 2019 (EUR 480 billion). Declines recorded in transport equipment, system-fashion, furniture, intermediate goods (especially oil derivatives) were offset by increases in food, chemical-pharmaceuticals, ICT and the jump in jewellery (+39%), mainly due to strong demand from the Turkish market." As far as manufactured exports are concerned, 'the slight drop recorded overall in 2024 is the result of very diversified dynamics in individual markets and sectors. The main negative contribution,' the report goes on to say, 'came from Germany, whose economic crisis resulted in a 5% drop in sales of Italian manufactured goods, especially in motor vehicles, metallurgy, and mechanics. The sharp drop recorded in China (-21%) was the result of a downward correction of the anomalous peak recorded in 2023 by sales of pharmaceutical products. Similarly, the 3.6% drop in exports to the US reflects the earlier peak in shipbuilding. On the other hand, significant positive contributions came from exports to Saudi Arabia, which grew by more than 29% thanks mainly to the mechanical engineering industry, and to the United Arab Emirates (+20.4%) due to increases in mechanical engineering, clothing and leather products. Sales growth in Spain (+4.6%) benefited mainly from increases in ICT products and pharmaceuticals. As already noted, the world market share of Italian goods exports, expressed at current prices, has remained substantially stable at around 2.8% over the last decade. The slight increase recorded in the United States (where the share stood at 2.3%) and France (7.9%) was matched by equally slight declines in Germany (5.2%) and the United Kingdom (3.9%), while in the Chinese market, Italy's share remained steady at 1%.

To gain a better understanding of recent trends in Italian exports, the results of more than 84,000 'persistently exporting' companies, defined as those that exported continuously in the three-year period 2022-24, were analysed on the basis of data provided by Istat. Large companies accounted for just over 50 per cent of exports in 2024, medium-sized companies for 29.9 per cent and small and micro enterprises for about one fifth. The importance of multinational companies is also confirmed: Italian-controlled companies account for 40.4 per cent of exports in 2024, foreign-controlled companies for 33.8 per cent.