Tariffs, Meloni: sustainable agreement, now help affected companies

Thumbs up, but with caution. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni confines herself to commenting on the agreement on the tariffs at 15% with a few words: "I judge it positive that there is an agreement, but I cannot judge the merits if I do not know the details". Then, in a joint note with deputies Antonio Tajani and Matteo Salvini, he first of all promotes the method: the solution is the result of a team effort that "has avoided falling into the trap of those who wanted to fuel a head-on clash between the two sides of the Atlantic". There are two clarifications: the basis of the agreement, which 'averts the risk of a trade war', is 'sustainable' if it includes the previous tariffs; for the sectors that should be affected, the executive is ready 'to activate support measures at the national level', but the European level is asked to do the same.

If the first set is gone, then the second will decide the endgame for Italy: the details and the list of exceptions that will enjoy zero tariffs. Some were anticipated by Ursula von der Leyen, including aeroplanes and some agricultural products, but Meloni will try to focus all her efforts on protecting Made in Italy, from wine and cheese to luxury and design, passing through components and fashion. Companies are holding their breath. Federvini last night expressed 'strong concern', Cna and Legacoop Agrolimentare branded the agreement as 'unsatisfactory'.

From Ethiopia, where she landed yesterday to attend the third UN summit on food systems and promote the Mattei Plan, the premier never stopped staying in touch with the president of the EU Commission, who with her delegation was busy negotiating with Trump in Turnberry. It was a heart-stopping afternoon, Meloni's, spent in Addis Ababa first meeting Catholic missionaries, then at the National Palace for the bilateral with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, and finally with a face-to-face meeting with the president of the African Union Commission, Mahamoud Ali Youssouf.

The news of the Europe-USA agreement came during the dinner offered by Ahmed. No surprises so far with respect to Italian expectations, also because - they reason at Palazzo Chigi - if the basic tariffs absorb 4.8% pre-Trump the additional imposition is that 10% that in Meloni's last vis-à-vis the tycoon, at the NATO summit in The Hague a month ago, the Prime Minister had defined as 'sustainable'. Nothing to do with the threatened 30%. This is also why Italy, like Merz's Germany, has not only always preached the line of dialogue, against those (Macron's France) who had called for tough countermeasures to be prepared, but had also anticipated the promise to increase purchases of LNG from the US. The news that the EU will buy energy from the US for 250 billion a year for three years, in short, was not unexpected.

The government is not ignoring the additional burden placed on companies by the devaluation of the dollar, which is increasingly weaker against the euro. The effect, according to economist Carlo Cottarelli, is "a little over 20%", but does not foreshadow "a complete collapse". There will be a price to pay, however: simulations by the Centro Studi di Confindustria calculate that flat tariffs at 15% with a dollar devalued against the euro by 10% on average in 2024 would reduce Italian exports to the US by 22.6 billion.