Trade

Tariffs, US-Japan agreement: tariffs to 15% and Tokyo to invest 550 billion in the US

US rice imports set to rise. Nikkei up sharply. According to the Japanese press Premier Ishiba will resign shortly

by Marco Masciaga

L’edizione straordinaria dello Yomiuri Shimbun con la notizia dell’accordo commerciale tra Stati Uniti e Giappone

3' min read

3' min read

From our correspondent

NEW DELHI - After months of intense negotiations, the United States and Japan yesterday initialled a trade agreement that cuts tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump against the US' main Asian ally from 25 per cent to 15 per cent. Included in the agreement - the first really significant one since the outbreak of the trade war unleashed by the White House - is the automotive sector, which alone is worth a quarter of Japan's exports to the US and which, for the passenger vehicle part, was burdened by tariffs of 27.5 per cent.

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The news of tariffs being lowered on cars made in Japan was greeted with disappointment by American manufacturers because of their high degree of integration with Mexico and Canada, two countries burdened with 25 per cent tariffs. Tokyo has promised to lower the non-tariff barriers that currently limit the export of US cars to Japan, although there is scepticism in Tokyo about the appeal of American cars.

Japan has announced that it will finance investments in the US up to USD 550 billion. Outlining the contents of the agreement, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba explained that "the package includes loans and guarantees from institutions affiliated with our government to enable Japanese companies to build supply chains in sectors such as pharmaceuticals and semiconductors". A White House official explained that Tokyo pledged to purchase 100 aircraft from Boeing and to increase the 'American' portion of its defence budget from USD 14 billion to USD 17 billion.

"With a 15% tariff rate, I expect the Japanese economy to avoid recession," explains Kazutaka Maeda, economist at the Meiji Yasuda Research Institute. The news of the deal was greeted with enthusiasm by investors, because although high, a 15% tariffs level is considered manageable, not only compared to the 25-30% tariffs that have been envisaged so far, but also in comparison to the uncertainty of these months.

Although Trump has complained in the past about Japan's competitive advantage from the yen's weakness, the agreements reached yesterday are not about currency issues, Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato explained yesterday. Kato himself discussed the yen-dollar exchange rate with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Tokyo, agreeing that the issue would be addressed separately. Holding over $1.1 trillion of US debt, more than any other country in the world, Japan has leverage that is difficult to ignore.

In return for the reduction of tariffs applied to the auto sector and threatened on all other Japanese exports, there will be an increase in imports of US agricultural products. Tokyo will buy more US rice, but within the existing tariff-free quota, Ishiba said Wednesday. Rice has been one of the thorniest issues between the two countries' negotiators for weeks, not least because Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party has its traditional electoral constituencies in Japan's rural regions, and a cave-in, even a symbolic one, before Sunday's vote would have further worsened the already negative election results.

The Nikkei index of the Tokyo Stock Exchange closed up 3.51% despite increasingly persistent rumours of PM Ishiba's resignation following the recent electoral defeat that left the governing coalition without a majority in both houses of parliament. A few hours after the rumours were published, Ishiba intervened to deny the rumours and take credit for the agreement "with the lowest tariffs among those signed with countries with a trade surplus". A sign that the Japanese leader will try in every way to resist.

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