Estimates

US tariffs at 15% on Italian wine: 317 million impact. Frescobaldi: 'At least 80% of the sector penalised'

Producers worried about the agreement between Europe and the US: higher damages for Italy due to higher net exposure on the US market

by Giorgio Dell'Orefice

3' min read

3' min read

The world of Italian wine, the leading agri-food sector in terms of exports to the United States (with a turnover of 1.9 billion out of a total of 7.8 billion) is experiencing with great concern the new trade arrangement between Europe and the USA with a tariffs that from 1 August will be 15% and with the non-exemption of the spirits sector as had been hypothesised in the negotiations.

The effects of the new tariffs

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The fears of Italian wineries stem from the fact that they are assessing the new arrangement not on the basis of the threats of the American president (who had gone so far as to ventilate a 30% tariffs on imports from Europe), but on the status quo before Trump's return to the White House. And, until last January, the average tariffs applied on Italian wine was 2.9%. As it stands, therefore, with a 15% tariff, the imposition on Italian bottles has increased fivefold in less than seven months.

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Frescobaldi: with 15% tariffs penalised at least 80% of Italian wine

"With tariffs at 15%," commented the President of the Italian Wine Union, Lamberto Frescobaldi, "at least 80% of Italian wine risks being penalised. The damage we estimate for our companies is about 317 million euro, cumulated over the next 12 months, while for overseas trading partners the loss of earnings will reach almost 1.7 billion dollars. The loss would rise to EUR 460 million should the dollar maintain its current level of devaluation. We are already appealing to the Italian government and the EU to consider appropriate measures to safeguard an industry that had grown so much thanks to the US buyer. With today's meeting in Scotland between Presidents Trump and von der Leyen," added Frescobaldi, "we have at least come out of an uncertainty that was blocking the market; now it will be necessary for the supply chain to take on the loss of revenue in order to minimise the mark-up on the shelf.

Bridges: the shared goal remains to arrive at a lower percentage

Great concern is also expressed by Federvini. "A hypothesis of tariffs at 15% poses a clear criticality for the sector," explained Federvini president Giacomo Ponti, "and the shared objective remains to arrive at a lower percentage, more sustainable for our companies, while bearing in mind that the optimum would be zero duty. The hope is that, by 1 August, we can have a further margin to set up our trade relations with a key partner and strategic ally such as the United States. At stake is not just an industrial segment, but a production model based on quality, identity and international relations built over time'.

"According to our analyses," added UIV President Frescobaldi, "at the beginning of the year, the Italian bottle that came out of the cellar at 5 euro was sold in the lane for 11.5 dollars; now, between tariffs and the devaluation of the US currency, the price of the same bottle would go close to 15 dollars. With the consequence that, if before the final sales price compared to the value at origin increased by 123%, from today it will rise to 186%'.

Castelletti: compared to other competitors, Italy is likely to be more affected

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"We cannot be satisfied with this agreement," added the secretary general of the Italian Wine Union, Paolo Castelletti: a 15% tariffs is certainly lower than the hypothesis of 30%, but it is equally true that this tariff is enormously higher than the almost zero pre-duty rate. Compared to its European competitors, Italy also runs the risk of suffering a greater impact, on the one hand due to its greater net exposure to the US market, equal to 24% of the total value of exports compared to 20% for France and 11% for Spain; on the other hand, due to the type of products from the Belpaese that concentrate their strength on the quality-price ratio, with 80% of the product concentrated in the 'popular' bands - therefore at an ex-cellar price of 4.2 euros per litre - and with only 2% of the Italian bottles placed in the super-premium band".

The most exposed wines

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The Observatory of the Italian Wine Union then estimated the impact of the new US tariffs on the various types of wine made in Italy with many labels with more than 20% exposure on the US market, i.e., shipping more than 20% of their exports to the US.

And in this sense, the most exposed wines are Moscato d'Asti (which sends 60% of its foreign sales to the US), Pinot Grigio (48%), Chianti Classico (46%), Tuscan PDO reds at 35%, Piedmontese reds at 31% as well as Brunello di Montalcino, to close with Prosecco at 27% and Lambrusco.

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