Letter to the saver

Technogym: health and artificial intelligence to support margins

Strategy. The group focuses on innovation and products not only for training purposes. Focus on the USA and the Middle East. China's slowdown

class="dinomecognome_R21"> Vittorio Carlini

TECHNO GYM STABILIMENTO GAMBETTOLA GINNASTICA ATTREZZI PALESTRA AZIENDALE CORPORATE WELLNESS ATTIVITA'FISICA LOGO MARCHIO TAPIS ROULANT RUN SPORT TECHNOGYM TECNOGYM

6' min read

6' min read

On the one hand, the theme - transversal to the different customer types - of health (and its protection) supported by the same product evolution (also thanks to Artificial Intelligence). On the other, the focus on the geographical areas of the Middle East and North America. These are among the priorities of Technogym, whose Letter to the Saver heard from top financial executives, in support of the business. Yes, the business. The wellness multinational reported rising revenues and profitability in the first half of 2024. Turnover stood at 402.1 million, up 9.2% at constant exchange rates compared to the same period in 2023. Ebitda and Adjusted Profit also expanded, reaching EUR 66.7 million (+12.4%) and EUR 32.5 million (+15.4%), respectively.

SEMESTRI A CONFRONTO

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Geographical areas

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These results were aided, among other things, by the performance of North America and Meia (Middle East, India and Africa). Apart from Italy (+16.8%) and the former Europe (+6.7%), the USA and Canada - again in the first half of 2024 - brought home an increase of 8.4%. Africa, India and the Middle East, on the other hand, grew by 16.8%. In particular, the latter area was driven by the Middle East, which is one of Technogym's focuses. This is a world in which movement, sporting activity, and wellness are among the ultimate factors of social modernisation.

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RICAVI E AREE GEOGRAFICHE

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With which one can understand why, on the one hand, there is a high demand for Technogym products; and, on the other, the group has, among other things, opened a branch in Riyadh (Saudi Arabia) where a boutique will also be opened. In short: the Middle East is strategically relevant for the company. Similarly to North America. Here, with respect to Canada, the group - after the establishment of the legal entity - has started direct management of the local business. With reference to the US, on the other hand, it must be emphasised that the customer base is in line with that planned for the entire group in the future. That is, approximately 20% for BtC and 80% for BtB.

RICAVI E CLIENTELA

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Against this background, then, what are the possible dynamics of the different markets? Europe is confirmed with an expansion close to the average annual increase estimated for society between 2023 and 2025. That is, a CAGR of 10%. Apac, which at last year's Investor Day was expected to develop at lower rates than the group, could have more opportunities by 2025. North America, for its part, after a year also below the company's CAGR, is now estimated to be travelling in line with the average annual rate of the entire company. And it could, again looking ahead to 2025, have more opportunities. Finally: the Middle East. (included in Meia).This is expected to grow at an average expansion rate of more than 10% per annum. From which - without prejudice to the objective of growth in absolute terms in all markets - it cannot be ruled out that Meia could gain - in the medium term - a few percentage points in revenue impact.

RICAVI E CANALE DISTRIBUTIVO

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The risks on individual markets

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All roses and flowers, then? The reality is more complicated. The saver expresses a concern. In China there is a slowdown in the rate of economic expansion and a decline in consumer confidence. This is an environment that negatively affects the sale of Technogym's products in that country and, consequently, could weigh on the growth of Technogym's business. The group, although aware of the situation, makes a profession of calm. Firstly, it explains, the relevance of the Chinese market is limited and, therefore, the impact on the overall business is circumscribed. In addition, says Technogym, the geographical diversification of the business - as the latest results themselves prove - allows the trend in other areas to more than offset the trend in the former Middle Kingdom. Finally, the company concludes, the group boasts a flexibility on the production front - as shown, for example, during the Covid period - that allows it to quickly handle the various market dynamics. Even the negative ones. However, the saver expresses another doubt. The concern is about the Middle East. The area, unfortunately, is affected by dramatic military events. A context in which the uncertainty of the situation could lead to a lower propensity to buy products, including those of Technogym. The group, which is hoping for an immediate diplomatic solution to the tragedies upsetting those lands, indicates that it does not see any impact on business. Also because, the company adds, its business is linked to people's desire to feel good. And in this sense, it is recalled, Meia rose 16.8% in the first half of 2024.

Health

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Up to this point, some considerations on the dynamics of the profit and loss account and the geographical breakdown of the business. The group, however, has a further important focus: that related to health. This, together with the theme of 'strength' as a pre-condition not only for aesthetics but also for one's own wellbeing, is a macro trend of being well (wellness being at the centre of Technogym's activities) that facilitates business activity. A dynamic that, moreover - in the face of an ageing population - imposes the objective, on the one hand, on governments to reduce the cost of care; and, on the other, on individuals to increase prevention. A dual condition that - again - drives the group's activity. On closer inspection, the theme cuts across different customer categories. It involves - in addition to specialised users such as clinics - both private customers and those consisting of companies, hotel or gym chains. Obviously, the strategy is supported by product development. At the beginning of the summer, for example, the wellness multinational launched Technogym Checkup on the market. This is a body assessment station that tests and evaluates the user's physical and cognitive condition. The machine, thanks to proprietary Artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms, is able to ganalyse the data (present in the cloud) of the person using the equipment on the one hand; and, on the other, find the appropriate exercises for the subject, automatically providing a customised training or exercise programme. The group gives no indication of sales of Technogym Checkup but indicates that demand is very strong. 

Marginality

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It is clear that the product in question, together with the entire wellness ecosystem built by the company over the years, will have to contribute to the increase in margins. In this respect - it was recalled - the group in the pre-covid period had an adjusted Ebitda margin above the threshold considered structural of 20% (in 2019 the indicator was 22.1%). Subsequently to the pandemic, the ratio of adjusted Ebitda to revenue fell, only to rise again in recent years. Last year - the last figure to be taken into account in order to avoid the effects of partial income statement results - its value came to 18.8%. This percentage is below the level considered structural, which makes the nose twitch. The group rejects the disappointment. First, the adjusted Ebitda margin in question is considered good. Then the company emphasises that this is a deliberate and studied situation. That is to say: the company could increase the margin by, for example, reducing investments. The move would however, is the indication, make little sense. The company's objective is long-term sustainable growth. In this sense Technogym, having recalled that it has not completely transferred the higher inflation-related charges to the customer in order to maintain solid and healthy relations with the latter, confirms its desire to bring the indicator back to the structural level of 20%. A target which, among other things, will be achieved thanks to the continuous streamlining of operations. If this is the background, what then is the group's outlook for the whole of 2024? The company responds by stating that it is in line with the targets communicated on Investor Day. Namely, the average annual revenue growth of 10% between 2023 and 2025. Then the growth - always annual - of adjusted EBITDA between 40 and 70 basis points (compared to the previous year) in the wake of: economies of scale, better quality, optimisation of logistics and supply chain control. Finally, the recurring cash flow conversion rate is confirmed at over 60%.

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