Negotiations

Tehran: agreement with the US on principles for the nuclear programme

by Roberto Bongiorni

Adobe Stock

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

The good news, the encouraging news, is that Iran and the United States have reportedly reached an understanding on the basic principles to try to reach a new agreement on the nuclear programme. At least that is what Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has announced. The less good news is that these basic principles still seem to have different forms and hierarchies depending on who interprets them. They are therefore still approximate.

The second round of indirect negotiations between Iran and the United States, held yesterday in Geneva and mediated by Oman, seems to have thwarted the threat of an imminent US military operation in Iran, although the Pentagon continues to send new air forces to the region (yesterday another 50 fighter planes).

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The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran will meet again for a third round of negotiations. The date and location are yet to be determined.

Being the shrewd diplomat that he is, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasised the progress and overshadowed the sticking points: 'We were able to reach broad agreement on a set of guiding principles, on the basis of which we will move forward and begin work on the text of a potential agreement,' he told state television, calling the new round of talks 'more constructive' than the 6 February session in Oman. "This does not mean that we will reach an agreement soon," he said, "but the path has begun."

The Iranian minister's diplomatic balancing acts, however, find a stumbling block difficult to circumvent in the facts on the ground. The parties are still entrenched in their mutual positions, made up of non-negotiable conditions. Those of the United States, whose officials yesterday still spoke of several points of distance, were essentially three, and still seem to be (all to be incorporated into the negotiations) iran's probable renunciation of the uranium enrichment process - if indeed Iran wants to develop nuclear energy, it will have to import enriched ore -; a major downsizing of its ballistic missile programme and its arsenal of long-range missiles; and the renunciation of continuing financial and political support for the pro-Iranian Shia regional militias, otherwise known as the 'Axis of Resistance'.

Iran, for its part, has two more: its ballistic missile programme cannot be touched. Still less its relations with allied militias across the border. Nuclear power, however, yes, but under certain conditions. Tehran will not give up its uranium enrichment process, in its view aimed at developing nuclear energy for civil purposes, which is considered a legitimate right that cannot be questioned. This was made clear by Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a tweet on X: "The Americans say, 'We negotiate on your nuclear energy, and the result of the negotiation should be that you will not have this energy!' If that is the case, there is no room for negotiation'.

More than the United States, Iranian diplomats insisted on including, with an increasing role, the International Atomic Energy Agency, already present in Geneva yesterday with its director Rafael Grossi, and invited IEA inspectors to check nuclear sites. Iran and the United States will work on drafts that will then be exchanged and examined.

There are many points of disagreement. Iran demands an immediate end to sanctions. The US, on the other hand, prefers to remove them gradually and when the results are proven. Iran is willing to hand over part of the stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% (a very dangerous gradation); the US frowns on any stockpile, even at a limit below 3.67% (a limit set in the old 2015 agreement).

If on the diplomatic table the two sides want to flaunt goodwill, on the war table the threats of the leaders continue, moreover with increasing intensity. Khamenei has pointed out that Iran has powerful weapons, capable of striking the large American fleet deployed in Middle Eastern waters. The Revolutionary Guardians temporarily closed parts of the Strait of Hormuz for a few hours in connection with a military exercise. "We are ready to close the Strait of Hormuz at any time" if an order to that effect arrives, warned Pasdaran commander Alireza Tangsiri.

Iran and the United States seem intent on continuing negotiations, but they are equally intent on being ready for war.

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