The word from the manager: Mfs Investments

'Tenaris is a quality stock with attractive valuations'

"The other companies we focus on are Bnp Paribas, Tesco and Gea Group."

by Isabella Della Valle

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

Jeffrey D. Morrison Head of Investments at Mfs Investments Management explains how quantitative analysis is useful in managing portfolios even in uncertain and volatile market phases.

How can quantitative models be efficient given the unpredictable situations that have been occurring in the markets for years now?

We have developed a process that avoids relying on a single performance factor. In practice, our process is designed to maintain positive exposure to several quantitative factors: value, momentum, quality and sentiment, while controlling systematic risks such as market beta and sector exposures. The objective is to generate results through stock selection (alpha) rather than being exposed to the fluctuations of a single macroeconomic environment. Equally significant is that our quantitative models do not operate separately. Quantitative and fundamental research have complementary strengths: models offer a systematic and objective reading of fundamentals and valuations, while fundamental analysis provides a more qualitative and forward-looking assessment. We believe that the most promising opportunities lie precisely at this 'intersection': stocks that receive a buy rating from both our quantitative models and fundamental analysis.

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IL TITOLO IN BORSA

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What is the value of fundamental analysis in stock selection?

Fundamental analysis is essential because it brings a qualitative and future-oriented perspective that quantitative models alone cannot provide. It provides a deeper insight into corporate quality, competitive dynamics, management effectiveness and earnings sustainability.

How do you manage volatility?

We believe that the best way to manage volatility is through diversification. Our portfolio construction process is designed to ensure that risk is primarily determined by security selection and not by large sector, geographic or stylistic positions. In the construction phase, we explicitly control systematic exposures, such as countries and sectors, and keep sector and individual security weights generally within +/-2% of the benchmark. We apply limits to position sizes and diversify holdings so that no single security can predominantly influence results.

I COMPARABLES

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Which European countries do you see as having the most potential at this stage?

We do not have a macroeconomic view of individual countries. We usually control exposure to individual countries at +/-4%, with over- and underweighting determined by signals from our bottom-up analysis. At the end of February, the portfolio was modestly overweight France, the UK, the Netherlands, Italia and Ireland.

The drivers that will characterise price lists in the coming months?

Global and European stock markets are currently affected by the tensions in the Middle East and their impact on energy prices and interest rates. In Europe, rising natural gas prices and inflation are putting pressure on energy-intensive sectors, while energy companies could benefit. In early 2026, rate cuts, deregulation and a more expansive fiscal policy should have supported growth. A resolution of the crisis in Iran could support the recovery, favouring cyclical and growth sectors. However, prolonged conflict and high energy prices could undermine growth and shift leadership to more defensive sectors and factors.

IL CONFRONTO

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How are you positioned in terms of sectors?

Global and European stock markets are currently affected by the tensions in the Middle East and their impact on energy prices and interest rates. In Europe, rising natural gas prices and inflation are putting pressure on energy-intensive sectors, while energy companies could benefit. In early 2026, rate cuts, deregulation and a more expansive fiscal policy should have supported growth. A quick resolution of the crisis in Iran could support the recovery, benefiting cyclical and growth sectors. However, prolonged conflict and high energy prices could undermine expansion and shift leadership to more defensive sectors and factors.

Could you indicate the companies you find most interesting and why?

Historically, the largest contribution to portfolio performance has come from stocks that are positively valued by both our fundamental analysis and our quantitative models. Our positions with the highest degree of certainty included Tenaris, Bnp Paribas, Asml, Tesco and Gea Group. These holdings combine attractive valuations with strong price and/or earnings momentum, quality characteristics and favourable confidence signals.

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