Tenaris attempts to rebound with oil stocks

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Tenaris is trying to raise its head after its eve's thud and is moving against a FTSE MIB weak. The stock of the group active in the production of pipes for the oil & gas sector gained about two points, recovering part of the losses incurred after the quarterly accounts and the cautious outlook for the second quarter, as well as the news on top management. Other oil stocks also performed well in Milan, with Eni up and Saipem less moved. Meanwhile, oil was up, with Brent crude at $101.1 a barrel (+1.1%) and Wti at $95.4 (+0.6%).

Returning to Tenaris, on the eve of trading, the share price had fallen more than 6%, despite above-consensus results. It was mainly fears of a slowdown expected in the second quarter due to tensions in the Middle East and logistical difficulties in the Strait of Hormuz that weighed heavily. This was while there was a handover between Paolo Rocca and the new CEO, Gabriel Podskubka.

Today, however, analysts return to more constructive indications. Equita points out that Q2 2026 will be 'weaker than expected' but expresses 'confidence about the second half of the year', highlighting how management expects 'a recovery in volumes in the period, with levels close to those of the first quarter', assuming a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. According to the sim, the second quarter is still expected to be affected by the disruption in the Middle East, with Ebitda margins expected to fall by around 200 basis points due to 'operating leverage and higher logistics costs', in addition to the Hormuz dossier.

However, in the second half of the year 'prices are expected to rise sufficiently to offset the higher costs'. Equita also points topositive signals from North America - worth around 49% of group sales in 2025 - where "customers are starting to add rigs, with expectations of around 50 additional rigs (drilling rigs) by year-end". On the offshore front, the broker also reports a more constructive view: 'The pipeline remains very strong, including deepwater projects, with some FIDs brought forward from the original plan'. On the Middle East, instead, Equita recalls that "Saudi Arabia and UAE remained operational, while the main disruptions were in Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar".

Intermonte speaks of 'strong operating performance in a highly volatile scenario' and confirms that first quarter results were 'better than expected, with revenues and operating margins supported by higher volumes and average selling prices'. The sim's analysts point out that 'once the strait is reopened, activity in the area will initially prioritise restoring production to previous levels', while in the rest of the world business should be 'supported by increased investment in short-cycle shale gas and the approval of offshore projects'. However, Intermonte remains cautious on the stock after its rally in recent months and confirms its 'neutral' recommendation, while raising its target price to €23 from €21.