Tesla, Musk back behind the wheel and the stock runs (despite disastrous accounts)

"After a 50 per cent drop in the share price, the market is inclined to change its perspective and, with Musk ready to return to full Tesla management, there is a tendency to set aside recent fears in the hope that leadership will return firmly to his hands," adds Beauchamp.

Analysts at Morningstar agree: "We believe the market was concerned that Musk might be too distracted to effectively lead Tesla, at the risk of damaging the brand. His decision to reduce involvement as an advisor should help allay these fears'.

The narrative holds for now, thanks to four pillars: robotaxis coming in June, booming energy business (+67% year-on-year), a new, more affordable Model Y approaching, and the Optimus robot planned for 2025. In addition, Musk changes course: he now talks about 'sustainable abundance' and puts AI and robotics at the centre.

But there is no shortage of technical warning signals. On 14 April, the thirteenth death cross (a term used in technical analysis to indicate a major bearish signal) for Tesla, with the stock down 39% from its January highs: the worst quarterly fall ever. And this time it is not just a technical fact. The problems are real: compressed margins, factories to upgrade, global uncertainties.

"The damage to the Tesla brand caused by Musk's outbursts in the political arena and with DOGE will not go away overnight," notes Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush, one of Tesla's biggest 'fans'. "We estimate that this may have compromised up to 10 per cent of future demand, especially in Europe and the US. But it was necessary to close a dark chapter to open a new, brighter one focused on innovation and technology. Musk is Tesla, and Tesla is Musk. And this is one of the most important moments, in terms of technological advances, in the company's history.

In June, Ives reminds us, the launch of unsupervised full autonomous driving is expected in Austin, Texas, where Tesla is based. A low-cost model will arrive in 2025 (an entry-level Model Y with cheaper materials and equipment that should compete with the many more affordable Chinese SUVs). In 2026, large-scale production of the Cybercab (Tesla's robotaxi) will start in the US, and the Optimus project (the humanoid robot that will have a sales impact '10 times greater than any product launched in the past', according to Musk's statement a month ago) 'becomes more and more concrete'.

Wedbush raised its price target again from $315 to $350 after the call on the first quarter accounts (it had lowered it from $550 to $315 on 6 April due to the entry into force of US duties, ed.), in the mid-range of market estimates, which range between $125 and $700.