Tesla, EU sprint not enough: Byd to overtake at year-end

After a still disappointing start to the year, Tesla sees the spectre of a third consecutive year of declining global sales materialising. But, above all, projecting quarterly statistics, a new overtaking of the company led by Elon Musk by Byd is increasingly likely, this time on the European electric vehicle market, with the Chinese manufacturer which in recent days, despite a new drop in global monthly sales in March (-20.5% is the seventh consecutive) revised upwards its export guidance by 15%. Globally, the Eastern manufacturer has already surpassed the Texan carmaker last year (with 2.25 million vehicles sold versus 1.64 million). A similar result, but obtained on European soil alone, would - observers agree - have even greater significance, marking an ideal passing of the baton between the pioneering revolution led by Tesla over the past fifteen years and the new course, under the banner of the democratisation of EV, dominated by Chinese manufacturers.

Tesla's first-quarter delivery figures disappointed expectations, especially in the US, partly due to the impact of the long wave of expiring US tax credits. In detail, the company delivered 358,023 vehicles in the January-March period, down 14.4 per cent from the fourth quarter, although up 6.3 per cent from a year earlier. Analysts had expected deliveries of 368,903 vehicles on average, according to data from Visible Alpha. The US aside, however, sales grew in Europe (and also in China) compared to last year. The credit for this is mainly due to the good performance of the Model Y, which has been revamped into a more 'spartan' version with a more affordable price. New Tesla car registrations in France tripled in March, with 9,569 cars delivered, touching the all-time record of 9,572 cars recorded in December 2023. Sales in the Nordic countries more than doubled: with 6,150 vehicles in Norway (+178%), 1,447 vehicles in Sweden (+144%), 1,784 vehicles in Denmark. (+96%). The Netherlands also did well, with 1,819 cars sold (+72%), and Spain, with 2,477 cars (+25%). Historically, the American manufacturer's registrations tend to be concentrated at the end of each quarter due to the way the vehicles are shipped, but it must be said that the positive trend is also confirmed in the count from January, with growth of 108% in France, +95% in Norway, +48% in Sweden, +50% in Denmark and +43% in Spain. In the Netherlands, on the other hand, the quarterly figure is down by 23%.

Tesla's positive figure, which marks the first sign of a turnaround from the difficulties of the last two years (market share in the electric vehicle segment has fallen from 18.2% in 2023 to 8.9% in 2025), is however confronted with an inexorable advance in sales by Eastern manufacturers, which doubled their sales volumes last year. The main Chinese players are betting strongly on exports, at a historic stage when the government has decided to reshape several local incentives in order to select the market. And precisely with the aim of trying to compensate for the contraction in the domestic market, Byd has in recent days revised upwards its already ambitious export targets, raising the target to 1.5 million vehicles, against the 1.3 million declared at the beginning of the year (a significant growth compared to the 1.03 million sales in 2025, although slightly lower than the 1.6 million threshold communicated to Citi's management at the end of November, according to Reuters). Chinese top management said they were 'very confident' that they would be able to achieve this target, which they announced to analysts during the conference call following the financial results, which closed with a higher-than-expected drop in profits for 2025, as price wars in the domestic market dented profits. The Chinese electric vehicle giant said foreign markets could eventually account for about half of the business, explaining that overseas expansion could come through localisation and that its factories in Europe and Indonesia should start mass production soon. Next to Chery, Saic and Leapmotor, Byd is one of the Chinese brands with the highest growth in the mainland market. In the January-February two-month period alone, it tripled its sales with 29,291 units (+179.2%), and indications for March certify a further acceleration, thanks to a much wider range of offerings than in the past, even excluding hybrids. This is also considered, in projection in 2026, to be a definite advantage over Tesla.