Markets and cars

Tesla ousted from the Olympus of the 'magnificent 7'. Eli Lilly now takes the throne

The drop of more than 50% since 2021 pushes Musk's group out of the stock market elite dominated by Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Nvidia, Google and Meta

La produzione del Model Y. Patrick Pleul/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo

3' min read

3' min read

In November 2021, a Tesla share cost $413. On 25 January 2024 that same share traded at 183. In the face of such a drop of more than 50 per cent, is it still fair to consider Elon Musk's automotive stock in the Olympus of the 'magnificent 7'? Along with Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Nvidia, Google and Meta? This is the question of the day in the traders' halls, especially in view of the fact that Tesla is currently worth, despite the sharp drop in the stock market, 44 times earnings and as much as 6 times revenues.

These are not the multiples of a common car company, but they are those of one of the 'magnificent' ones, the ones that have accustomed the market to exponential growth rates and thus manage to sell the dream to investors of deserving above-average prices.

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China's attack

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But now that Musk has questioned the sustainability of the 'old' growth rates, emphasising the importance of imposing tariffs on China to face competition in the electric car sector, selling that dream to the market may be increasingly difficult.

While the market is wondering about this (the 25 January quarterly report is still to be digested) there is one objective fact: Tesla, technically, no longer belongs to the list of the 'magnificent 7'. With the -12% loss suffered after the presentation of the accounts in terms of capitalisation, it has been replaced by Eli Lilly, a pharmaceutical giant that also continues to rise due to its sales of anti-obesity drugs.

In and out of the elite

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Tesla richiama oltre 2 milioni di veicoli

The exit from the elites of the 'magnificent 7' is not only simoblica. But it is also likely to have an effect on the distortions associated with the asset management and ETF industry.

"Tesla's market cap has fallen below that of Eli Lilly. And this is no small thing,' explains Paolo Belvederesi, CEO of Zeygos, 'Tesla's market cap is lower than that of Eli Lilly. This translates into higher potential flows (in countervalue) to the pharmaceutical company than to the car company. This means, in practice, that all passive and sham active managements, i.e. those that claim to be active but in essence replicate the benchmark, will be forced to buy more Eli Lilly than Tesla for future purchases. For every $1,000 they go on the S&P 500 index for example, they will tend to have a greater bullish impact on Eli Lilly than before. This is because they will have to distribute more money on this stock. But be careful, and here comes the point of the matter. It is not necessarily the case that $100 allocated to Tesla has the same market impact as $100 allocated to Eli Lilly The market impact, i.e. the price impact of buying flows on a stock depends on the stock's liquidity as a function of daily turnover. This morning, for example, Tesla's daily turnover is $36 billion while Eli Lilly's is $1.5 billion. Tesla trades 24 times more than Eli Lilly. This means that the impact a buy flow has on Eli Lilly potentially has at least 20 times the market impact it has on Tesla. And that weighs. It weighs a lot. More than you might guess. The industry has chosen the new owner and the perverse mechanism of passive funds and Etfs will take Eli Lilly (and in Europe the same applies to Novonordisk) to the Olympus of finance'.

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