Electric cars

Tesla returns to growth in Europe, but double-digit decline in Italy

Tesla sees a plus sign in France, Spain, Denmark and Norway after months of decline. Global Q3 figures expected Thursday: estimates between 445,000 and 470,000 deliveries

by Finance Review

Una Tesla con gli adesivi California Clean Air Vehicle (Veicolo a Basso Impatto Ambientale della California) percorre la corsia per veicoli a occupazione elevata (HOV) sulla Interstate 80 il 30 settembre 2025 a Berkeley, California.   Justin Sullivan/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by JUSTIN SULLIVAN / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

Tesla is returning to growth in several European markets, breaking a 2025 hitherto characterised by declining numbers. In September, according to national associations, the American manufacturer's sales were up 2.7% in France and 20.5% in Denmark, where the updated version of the Model Y SUV was the country's best-selling car. Norway also did well, with +14.7% and the Model Y - Model 3 pair topping the charts, and Spain, where registrations grew 3.4% driven by a 60% jump in the Model Y. Sweden, on the other hand, remains critical, with a 64% year-on-year slump, albeit up from its August low.

In Italy double-digit decline, Chinese fly

Instead, the decline in sales in Italy continues. In fact, Tesla is once again falling by double digits. In September, registrations fell by 25.6 per cent to 1,450 units, a larger drop than in the European Union. As data published by the Ministry of Infrastructures and Transport show, the drop in Italy follows the declines in August (-4.37%), July (-4.99%) and June (-66.01%). Thus, the balance for the first nine months of the year remains negative, with 8,791 registrations, down 33.36% compared to the same period in 2024. In the whole of 2024, Tesla registrations were down 5.91%.

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It is a different story for the Chinese, however, which recorded a strong step forward: MG Motor, a group controlled by the colossus Saic Motor, registered 3,810 cars in Italy in September (+17.96%, with the year-to-date total at +31.07%). Omoda/Jaecoo, part of the Chery Group, also registered 1,626 cars, 229.15% more than in the same period last year, with the 2025 total at 9,241 (+792%). Byd, which entered the MIT tables in recent months having exceeded the relevance threshold, registered 2,471 cars, up 1.95%, with the 2025 total jumping to 14,875 cars sold (+1,279%).

And the European budget remains negative

The European picture remains fragile: in the first eight months of the year, Tesla sales fell by 42.9 per cent in the EU and 32.6 per cent in the continent as a whole. In August, China's BYD overtook Tesla in EU registrations for the second time this year, a sign of increasing competitive pressure from Asian and European manufacturers. According to industry analysts, the revival offered by the restyling of the Model Y will not be enough without an expansion of the range: the last mass-market model introduced by Tesla was in 2020.

Competition is not the only challenge. In recent months, CEO Elon Musk's image has fuelled divisions: from support for Donald Trump to sympathies towards extreme right-wing formations in Europe, elements that have reduced the brand's appeal to a part of the public more attentive to environmental and social issues.

Even so, excellent stock market performance

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On the financial front, Tesla's stock experienced a banner September. The shares gained 35% for the month, almost doubling since April and bringing capitalisation back up to $1,480 billion. Underpinning the rally were expectations related to a strategic transformation: development of robotaxis, humanoid robots and artificial intelligence, alongside Musk's renewed focus on the electric car.

The run on Wall Street, however, came to a halt in the last days of September, with volatility returning. Investors now look ahead to the test of third-quarter delivery data, expected on Thursday, 2 October before Wall Street opens. Estimates range between 445,000 and 470,000 vehicles delivered globally, compared to 462,900 in the same period 2024.

Analysts agree that the third quarter is likely to be the best of the year (today, Wednesday 1 October, the stock still rallied), but the credit would not be due to a structural acceleration in demand: the main effect would come from US consumers' rush to take advantage of the $7,500 tax credit, which expired on 30 September. Many purchases planned for the last quarter would be brought forward, creating a momentary spike that would be followed by a slowdown.

The verdict of the third quarter

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The risk, several investment houses point out, is that the fourth quarter will show a demand gap in the US. Possible support could come from China, where Tesla launched the new six-seat Model Y in September, and from more aggressive marketing strategies, including promotions and price cuts. Europe, on the other hand, remains the most complex variable: weak sales, growing competition and the CEO's polarising image undermine its prospects.

Against this backdrop, Musk himself warned back in the summer that Tesla could face 'a few difficult quarters' before revenues from autonomous driving software and services begin to make a significant impact on the accounts. The shareholder vote expected in November on the trillion-dollar maxi remuneration plan confirms expectations of future transformation, but today's results are still largely dependent on car sales.

The verdict will come on Thursday: the balance of deliveries and production in the third quarter will show whether September's stock market rally can rest on solid foundations or whether it is just a parenthesis fuelled by bets on the future. (Al.An.)

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