Tesla surprises: deliveries exceed expectations. And Musk breaks the 500 billion wall

Tesla surprised the market with record deliveries in the third quarter: 497,099 vehicles between July and September, up 7.4 per cent year-on-year and well above the 443,919 units expected by the consensus. This is the best quarterly figure in recent history for the Austin, Texas-based company, and was achieved thanks to the rush to buy in the United States before the $7,500 federal tax credit for electric cars expired on 30 September.

Yet the market reaction was cold. After a bullish opening, Tesla's share price went into negative territory, losing over 5%. This behaviour reflects the reaction to the exceptional rally in September, +35% in a single month (top performance among the 'Magnificent Seven' stocks), when investors had already discounted the possibility of better-than-estimated data. It is the classic pattern of 'buy the rumor, sell the news': results beat expectations but arrive on ground already inflated by expectations.

The delivery figure does not dispel the unknowns. The effect of the US tax credit inflated demand for the quarter, but could leave a gap in the final months of the year. The company itself spoke of 'a few difficult quarters' on the horizon, with margins under pressure due to rebates and incentives. In addition, the Trump administration has initiated a review of environmental regulations, reducing the flow of regulatory credits that have supported Tesla's profits in the past.

The day, meanwhile, marks a historic first for Elon Musk. According to Forbes, the CEO and major shareholder of Tesla is the first man to surpass $500 billion in net worth, before falling back to $499.1 billion at the close. About 12% of his wealth is tied to Tesla's capital, but also to the revaluation of SpaceX, now valued at up to 400 billion, and the artificial intelligence startup xAI, which is aiming to raise capital on a 200 billion valuation.

Tesla itself unveiled a controversial new compensation plan for Musk last September, with a potential value of up to USD 1 trillion. The package, the largest ever proposed for a CEO, will be put to a shareholder vote at the next AGM and ties the rewards to extraordinary growth targets. For supporters, it is a guarantee that Musk will maintain his focus on the company, while critics see it as disproportionate and risky. In any case, the plan has helped boost investor optimism (also encouraged by Musk's buys in mid-September) and push capitalisation to annual highs ($1.53 trillion) and close to the all-time high of 17 December 2024 ($1.54 trillion at $479.86. dollars). After Thursday's selling, the market cap receded to $1.45 trillion.