That 1.3% position of the French in UniCredit

Credit Agricole pops up on UniCredit's shareholder register through Amundi with a 1.3% round position. All this while the market reassembles the geography of the 'ghost' share packages built by the big merchant banks with derivative instruments, but still without the name of the actual owner. Heavy stakes, worth EUR 9.3 billion, strategically positioned in the banks at the centre of the reorganisation at the starting gate.

Credit Agricole represents the key junction that could influence the outcome of the takeover bid launched by UniCredit on BancoBpm. With a 9.1% stake in the capital, the French bank is BancoBpm's largest shareholder and, according to yesterday's announcement, would have no intention of strengthening its position in the bank's capital. Credit Agricole 'has not asked the ECB for authorisation to rise above 10%' of BancoBpm's capital, sources close to the French institution stressed. A clarification due in light of the position built up by Jeffreys on 5% of BancoBpm and reported by this newspaper. While waiting to understand whether those shares are actually outside the French range, what emerges in the market is that an important and certain position Credit Agricole has built in UniCredit.

The total stake held by the French in the bank led by Andrea Orcel is 1.3%. These positions are held through the Amundi funds, but are decisive in limiting possible dilution in the event that Gae Aulenti's takeover bid for BancoBpm goes ahead. Numbers in hand, in the absence of that stake, Credit Agricole's share in the new aggregate would be diluted from 9% to 1.3%. On the other hand, thanks to that position built through Amundi, it would be able to maintain a 2.4% stake, as much as the Del Vecchio family's Delfin. Sources close to Paris report that the Amundi funds would not be at the bank's disposal. What is certain is that the market's eyes are focused above all on the attitude that the French partner will want to take, which, according to various observers, only stands to benefit in this game. Its position as the leading shareholder of the bank in Piazza Meda makes it a fundamental interlocutor both for UniCredit itself and for any other players interested in the same dossier. A complex negotiating table, therefore, which could pass through cross-agreements also involving Anima, on which BancoBpm has launched a takeover bid.

The 5% position built up in BancoBpm's capital is just one piece of the complex puzzle of derivative positions emerging in the capital of major Italian banks. Prominent among these are Goldman Sachs' transactions in UniCredit itself. This is a 7.05% round package worth EUR 4.3 billion on the stock market, which, if it were to go to a single investor, would make it the largest shareholder in Gae Aulenti's bank. According to Consob reports, the American merchant bank has three different contracts in place, a 1.5% stake is the subject of securities lending contracts with no maturity date and with the possibility of repayment at any time, the rest is represented by put and call options. Also along the axis that passes from UniCredit through BancoBpm to Siena is another round package of Mps shares managed by Barclays. In this case it is a 5.4% stake worth 386 million. Finally, outside of the current game but still in the banking sector, there is a 6.5% stake in Intesa Sanpaolo, again built by the American investment bank Goldman Sachs. In this case, the value of the potential stake is EUR 4.177 billion.

Summing up then, between Mps, UniCredit Intesa and BancoBpm there are open positions worth EUR 9.4 billion on the stock exchange. Slightly less than the value attributed by Andrea Orcel to the bank in Piazza Meda.