The bill to pay for Trump's opportunistic exits
The Tycoon's catchphrases may move the markets at will, but only to a certain extent public opinion and the economic picture as a whole
If the world slides into recession, there will be nothing left to say but 'Thank you Trump'. Two words that encapsulate a bitter truth: the US President's responsibility for the economic effects of the war in Iran.
It is no longer credible to present the Gulf War as a quick and time-limited operation, when we are already immersed in a creeping uncertainty that is fuelling a backdrop of high inflation, rising rates impacting public debts, and a growing climate of distrust that is bound to leave deep marks on global economies.
The forecasts of lack of GDP growth by public and private institutions day after day follow one another and agree on delineating Europe as the most fragile area. But the fallout, albeit less acute, is also manifesting itself in an America that is about to go to the midterm vote.
Feak diplomatic overtures, with war-mongering language announcing the escalation of resolute military action to end the conflict in Iran, do not translate into a credible exit strategy. These are catchphrases that may move the markets at will, but only to a certain extent public opinion and the economic picture as a whole. Sooner or later these policies will also present the bill to the Tycoon, not only in terms of deteriorating domestic consensus.
So far, Trump has been able to exploit an environment of hyper-reactive markets and a slower-thinking electorate. But until when? The economic system thinks in longer terms and the risk is that the perception of a mismanaged conflict is bound to weigh heavily not only on economic growth, but also on his figure as statesman saviour of the fatherland.
