The challenges of the energy mix on the road to transition

The most authoritative prophecy bears the signature of the Iea, the International Energy Agency. It says that it will be possible to meet the target set by Cop 28 in Dubai of tripling the installed capacity of energy from renewable sources by 2030 after last year's record level, which saw a 50% increase driven by China, with significant progress also made in Europe, the USA and Brazil. Solar leads the way followed by wind and, at a distance, hydro and biomass.

According to the Iea, the year of the overtaking of clean energies over fossil energies at a global level should be 2025: they will become the first source of electricity to exceed 42% of the total in 2028 compared to 29% in 2022. With different performances from country to country. In a scenario of geopolitical instability and economic uncertainties, the transition is now unstoppable, with an increasingly green energy mix. But to ensure compliance with the Paris Agreement - limiting average global warming to well below 2 degrees compared to the pre-industrial period, aiming for a maximum increase of 1.5 degrees - insiders agree, much more incisive policies are needed than the current ones.

The energy transition, essential to achieve net zero emissions, presents a complex landscape of challenges, targets and contradictions. All issues that will be addressed today and tomorrow at the Sole 24 Ore Italian Energy Summit (see sidebar).

In 2023 at EU level, according to Eurostat, renewables accounted for 44.7 per cent of production (an increase of 12.4 per cent compared to 2022) and were the main source of electricity, while the share generated by fossil fuels fell to 32.5 per cent. Solar and wind power also stand out here. The former in particular has leapt 126 per cent in the last five years. The trend is also underway in Italy: according to Terna, in 2023 the share of green energies was close to 44 per cent (against 50 per cent in Spain and Germany), including solar, wind, hydroelectric, biomass and geothermal. And in the first six months of 2024, for the first time, their production exceeded that of the most polluting sources. Hydroelectric (+64.8%), photovoltaic, and wind power (a total of +14.6%) led the way. "The growth," says Alessandro Marangoni, CEO of the Althesys think tank, "should continue in the coming years with a further affirmation of green energies driven above all by solar and wind power. In particular, photovoltaics is still destined to take the lion's share due to its cost-effectiveness and flexibility: it can be installed on large and small surfaces'. However, some knots remain to be unravelled, especially in our country: 'Firstly,' he points out, 'that of the excessive bureaucracy linked to authorisations. And the further affirmation of renewables is also linked to the pace of investments to adapt infrastructures'. Achieving climate neutrality in the electricity market, Marangoni explains, 'is an uphill road, but gradually the share of fossil fuels is set to decrease and remain as a backup. Renewables have proven over the years not only to be a more sustainable choice, but also to guarantee security of supply. This is a key aspect'. In the background remain fears for European industry, caught between increasingly fierce competition from China and US protectionism with massive support from the Inflation Reduction Act (Ira). And an eye on the so-called Lcoe, the costs distributed over the life of the project. 'The key issue for Italy and for the entire EU,' the economist concludes, 'will be the possibility of developing technologies in a sustainable way, also from an economic point of view. It is a question of competitiveness'.

Renewables, but not only. Last week, Confindustria president Emanuele Orsini relaunched the topic of next-generation nuclear power, which is 'strategic for energy independence' given that the use of renewables alone will not be able to meet our country's energy needs.