The Chinese economy grew by 4.5 per cent in the third quarter
The figure, which was slightly better than expected, was driven by exports. The prospect of further stimulus measures is receding
from our correspondent Marco Masciaga
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NEW DELHI – Thanks once again to the strength of its exports, the Chinese economy grew more than expected in the third quarter of the year, increasing the likelihood that it will meet the annual target set by Beijing and – despite sluggish consumption and falling investment – reducing the prospects of further monetary easing measures.
Between July and September , Beijing’s GDP grew by 4.5 per cent compared with the same period last year. This figure follows the 4.3 per cent increase recorded in the second quarter and is slightly higher than the consensus forecast (4.4 per cent) among economists surveyed by Bloomberg and Reuters. In the first nine months of the year, growth thus reached 4.6 per cent, falling within the range the government had set as its target (4.5–5 per cent).
A two-speed economy
China’s strategy of channelling credit and resources away from the property sector towards technology industries appears to have created a two-speed economy, in which industrial production and exports mask the weakness in consumption and private investment. The result, however, is that in September, China’s trade surplus grew as expected, with the risk of further escalating tensions with its main trading partners.
Also in September, growth in industrial production accelerated to 5.5 per cent year-on-year, in line with forecasts. In the first nine months of the year, investment fell by 7.2 per cent, a decline identical to that recorded between January and August.
Retail sales grew at a faster-than-expected rate, rising by 1.1 per cent, compared with a 0.4 per cent increase in August. Excluding car purchases, they rose by 3.9% compared with a year earlier, marking the fastest rate of growth since October 2025.
