The circular economy makes its debut on the agenda of COP 31 in Turkey

The circular economy makes its official debut at the climate talks. For the first time on the agenda at COP 31, the UN Climate Change Conference to be held from 9 to 20 November in Antalya, the Turkish presidency has included the topic in the so-called Action Agenda, which mobilises businesses and civil society on concrete issues, in parallel with the negotiations between representatives of 197 countries (plus the EU). Specific targets have been set: a global recycling rate of at least 15 per cent by 2035, up from the current 6.9 per cent, and halving the growth in municipal solid waste. The circular economy strategy is thus fully recognised as a fundamental pillar in achieving climate targets. “Over the years,” recalls Giulia Novati, a senior researcher specialising in industrial decarbonisation at the think tank Ecco Climate, “various reports have highlighted the link between the circular economy and the reduction of emissions. In particular, the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report of 2022 identifies material efficiency and circular flows as options to be promoted across all value chains to reduce industrial emissions.” And that is not all. According to a briefing by the EEA, the European Environment Agency – published in February based on scientific literature from the last five years – circular economy measures could help reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by an average of 33 per cent compared with a ‘business as usual’ scenario. ‘The challenge,’ continues Novati, ‘is to improve collection to ensure high-quality recycling. Globally, there are still significant differences, although there is a lack of fully comparable data across regions. The EU is among the most advanced regions, particularly in terms of regulation, but even here only 12.2 per cent of the materials used come from recycling, with very wide disparities between Member States.”

According to Valeria Zanini, policy adviser on climate diplomacy at Ecco, ‘the inclusion of this issue in the Action Agenda is undoubtedly positive because, in a context characterised by geopolitical tensions, volatility in commodity prices and pressure on critical raw materials, circularity is not merely an environmental choice. A reference to the efforts required in this area could be included in the summit’s final declarations, but it is not possible to make any predictions at this stage. It must be said that the decision – she adds – is also a move that reflects interests close to the Turkish Presidency: First Lady Emine Erdogan is the founder and president of the Zero Waste Foundation, which was established in 2023’. But it is above all another aspect that has already drawn international criticism. ‘The Turkish presidency’s commitment to methane,’ explains Zanini, ‘is flawed from the outset because the host country, which is promoting the reduction of methane emissions, has not signed up to the Global Methane Pledge.’ This is the initiative launched during COP26 by the US and the EU, and now signed by 159 governments, to reduce methane emissions by at least 30 per cent by 2030 compared to 2020 levels. In the negotiations between countries – which will be led by Australia – the process for the second Global Stocktake will begin in Antalya; this is the five-year global review of progress made in implementing the Paris Agreement, which will conclude at COP 33 in 2028. To the three targets set in Dubai (transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems to achieve net zero by 2050, a threefold increase in renewable energy and a doubling of energy efficiency by 2030) could be joined by the theme of electrification, with the aim of raising the share of electricity in global final energy consumption to 35 per cent by 2035, up from the current 23 per cent.

To complicate matters, last week saw the release of the UNEP’s report – the UN’s environmental programme – which states: global greenhouse gas emissions are at record levels and temperatures are projected to rise by up to 2.6 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, well above the 1.5-degree threshold relative to pre-industrial levels set by the Paris Agreement. ““On this front,” says Zanini, “the parties could emphasise that not enough has been done to avert this risk: the response could be to accelerate the implementation of the NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) and the transition away from fossil fuels, in order to limit the extent and duration of the overshoot.”

The hosts intend for the Antalya COP to be the ‘COP of implementation’. “The Conference also has symbolic significance,” says Zanini, “because it is being held in the Mediterranean – a climate hotspot and a crucial route between the EU, the Middle East and Africa, but also an area with high potential for renewable energy and for regional cooperation initiatives on clean technologies. We do not expect a binding roadmap for the transition away from fossil fuels to be launched, but COP 31 could provide a political response to climate change and the energy crisis, demonstrating that multilateralism remains the only solution for tackling these global issues.”

The success of these summits, Zanini points out, ‘is no longer necessarily measured by major unanimous agreements, but by the ability to make progress, not least thanks to groups of countries coordinating to drive forward more ambitious initiatives, within variable-geometry alliances’. Last year in Belém, for example, a smaller group laid the foundations for the first conference on the transition away from fossil fuels, which took place in Santa Marta, Colombia, and which will bring countries together again next year in Tuvalu. These are small steps to demonstrate that only by working together can we tackle the climate challenge.