The end of the West and European choices

The Western alliance is under severe strain and the Western world is set to lose its leadership. It is now imperative for Europe to seriously question what to do to navigate these challenging waters.

The signals coming from Washington are clear. The level of American confidence in Europe is at an all-time low. There is a widespread conviction among Republican elites that Europe is a burden rather than an asset for the United States. The focus is obviously on the economy and security. An excessive trade imbalance and insufficient defence spending create the image of a parasitic Europe, a Venusian Europe that thrives at the expense of the Martian United States, as Robert Kagan had already clearly stated in his 2003 book (22 years ago!). But it is not only the EU-US relationship that is at stake. The entire Western world order is creaking.

The 'world we created', we westerners, is rapidly coming to an end. After centuries of Western domination and transformation of the world, all major parameters tell us that we will soon no longer be the only world leaders. The BRICS countries are destined to have a bigger economy than the G7. In terms of technology, the PRC is at the forefront of innovation in many areas. In space exploration and military capabilities, the competition between the US and China is intensifying. At the UN, the Global South, or the world majority as the Russians call it, is gaining ground and is increasingly independent of directives from the North.

Europe must think strategically about how to survive in such a turbulent world. The worst-case scenario is one in which the alliance between the United States and the European Union dissolves (with the United States attacking Greenland?) and the Western world as a whole is stripped of its prerogatives, being marginalised to a secondary role. In this worst case scenario, Europe would find itself alone in a world of superior powers in political, economic and military terms. This would not only be shocking for the simple reason that we are not used to it, but it would also be extremely challenging because it would most likely entail the loss of a significant portion of our wealth and privileges.

From a strategic perspective, there are two main directions. Firstly, Europe should strengthen itself and, secondly, Europe should seek additional partners and allies. As realpolitik would say, both internal and external threats need to be balanced in these circumstances.