The EU: $45 ceiling for Russian oil. Here's why it can only work with the US OK

BRUSSELS - The European Union wants to further reduce Russia's oil revenues to force it to negotiate withUkraine, just days before a G7 summit in Canada that the Twenty-seven hope will lead to new sanctions against Moscow, which has been at war with Kiev for more than three years. Among the measures proposed in an 18th sanctions package is a reduction in the ceiling on the price of Russian oil, from $60 to $45 a barrel. The proposal will now have to be negotiated with the United States.

"Force is the only language Russia will understand," explained European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. "Our message is very clear: this war must end. We need a real ceasefire and Russia must come to the negotiating table with a serious proposal (...) Oil exports still account for one third of the country's income. We must reduce this source of income'.

In fact, the mechanism prevents the transport of Russian crude oil if it is purchased at a price above the set price. The $60 per barrel ceiling was introduced in 2022. It is unclear whether the US will accept the proposal presented by the Commission yesterday. Opinions in Washington are varied. Some fear that the measure will reduce the price of oil on international markets, to the detriment of US crude. Others hope that it will actually increase demand for US oil, in light of a drop in the supply of Russian crude.

Ms von der Leyen expressed confidence that the US will accept the European proposal (other European leaders appeared more cautious yesterday). The White House is ambivalent about how it wants to react to the recent Russian escalation on the battlefield. At the same time, a Republican senator, Lindsey Graham, is finalising his own sanctions package in Congress to be applied against the Kremlin. It is too early to tell whether President Donald Trump will sign the bill when the time comes. In this sense, the upcoming Canadian G7 from 15 to 17 June could be crucial.

The new European sanctions, which now have to be unanimously approved by the Twenty-Seven, also include the banning of a further 70 ghost ships, which carry Russian crude oil without registration, bringing the total number of outlawed vessels to almost 500. Brussels also proposes to add 22 more Russian banks to the list of Russian banks that are banned and to expand the restrictions against them from a simple exclusion from the SWIFT messaging network to an outright ban on transactions.