The brain drain, the South and Italia’s future
Between 2011 and 2024, Italia lost 441,000 young people. They did not leave and then return: they left and never came back. This figure, calculated by the National Council for Economics and Labour (CNEL) after accounting for those who returned, illustrates a wider phenomenon: over the last thirteen years, 630,000 young people aged between 18 and 34 have left the country. This is no longer a temporary crisis, but a now structural feature of Italy’s demographics.
The business community is the first to pay the price. In a study published in 2023 in the *American Economic Journal: Applied Economics*, authored by a group of Italian economists, it was calculated that a 1.7 per cent increase in emigration from the working-age population of an Italian municipality results in a 4.8 per cent decline in the creation of new businesses. But it is not just a matter of numbers. Those who leave, the researchers explain, take with them precisely the characteristics needed to start a business: a high level of education, youth and a willingness to take risks. The rest remain. And this selection process impoverishes those who stay, without even the compensatory benefit one might expect: the study shows that emigration has brought neither more jobs nor higher wages for residents, whilst overall demand for labour has actually fallen.
If you look at a map of Italia, the divide is clear. An analysis by Il Sole 24 Ore of Istat data collected between 2019 and 2026 shows that the sharpest declines in the population aged between 18 and 35 are concentrated in the South, with figures exceeding 12 per cent in several areas of the region. And it is not just a question of quantity, but of quality: according to Svimez, around 60 per cent of young people who move away today are university graduates, compared with less than 20 per cent in the early 2000s. Those who leave, therefore, are increasingly the very people the region most needs to retain.
The CNEL has attempted to put a figure on all this. Over the period 2011–2024, the national economic loss linked to human capital leaving Italia amounts to around 160 billion euros. But the drain begins even before people cross the border: according to estimates, the South ‘subsidises’ the Centre-North with 148 billion euros in human capital, because many young people move there before eventually leaving the country for good.
Over the years, governments have tried to take remedial action, particularly in the South: tax relief, non-repayable grants for those returning, and incentives for those tempted to leave. Numerous measures, often involving substantial allocations of resources. But just as striking, judging by the results, is their failure: young people continue to leave the South. The problem is that these policy tools do not address the real causes of the exodus. Surveys have consistently shown for years that people leave mainly due to a lack of career prospects and suitable employment. And if the underlying conditions remain unchanged, no incentive alone can create stable jobs or offer opportunities for professional development.
