Ucimu figures for the second quarter

Anticipation of version 5.0 brings robot orders to a standstill between April and June

Rosa: “But since the portal went live, orders have been coming in. It’s good that the scheme is set to run for several years.”

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

Foreign markets are struggling, and so is Italia. In the second quarter of 2026, the figure for new orders for machine tools was negative, with the index compiled by the Ucimu-Sistemi Research Centre & Corporate Culture Centre at Ucimu-Sistemi to measure production showed a 25.8 per cent fall compared with the April–June 2025 period. With the 2021 figure set at 100, the index stood at 47.8.

This result stems from the difficulties Italian manufacturers have encountered in both the domestic and foreign markets. Reversing the trend seen in the early months of the year, orders received from abroad fell by 15.3 per cent compared with the second quarter of 2025. However, it is the domestic figure that is dragging down the average, with the domestic market falling by 38.7 per cent – a result linked to the ‘wait-and-see’ effect caused by the implementing regulations on the new incentives, in the absence of which many investments have been put on hold.

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“The uncertainty of the geopolitical landscape, unsettled by wars, the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and the US President’s decidedly worrying stance on international policy,” explains Ucimu President Riccardo Rosa, “has profoundly undermined the already precarious balance within which the sector was operating.The decline in overseas deliveries, given the current situation, is understandable and was to be expected. Business has slowed down but, as is our nature, we have sought to direct our offering towards those areas less directly affected by conflicts and crises, diversifying our target markets where possible”. Demand is being weighed down in particular by the decline in investment in the automotive sector, the primary market for our machinery.

“The investment figures and values once guaranteed by the automotive sector cannot be replaced by demand from other sectors – however dynamic they may be – such as defence, aerospace and energy. For this reason, once again, we call on those who represent us in Europe to reconsider their position and adopt the principle of technological neutrality when drawing up development plans for the automotive sector. This approach would, in fact, enable the sector – and its entire extensive supply chain – to manage the ongoing transition effectively, not only whilst respecting the environment but also by safeguarding jobs wherever possible.”

Whilst order intake abroad has fallen, the decline in Italia has been even more severe, due to the prolonged deadlock over the implementing rules for the new Transition Plan 5.0. Taking the first and second quarters of the year together, the fall in orders on the domestic market stands at over 32 per cent.

“Businesses,” comments Rosa, “have been waiting for clarification on the hyper-depreciation scheme before confirming their purchase plans. Since 12 June, the day on which all the operational steps were completed, the hyper-depreciation scheme has been bearing fruit. We have immediately noticed a change in attitude among Italian users: orders are starting to come in. However, we will have to wait a few more months for the effect to be clearly reflected in our figures, but we are definitely confident. This is also because, in the meantime, we have figures from the Ministry of Enterprise and Made in Italy which, as of 9 July, reported that 7,000 notifications had been submitted to the GSE platform, worth 2.5 billion.”

The hope now is for a sustained recovery in the second half of the year, taking into account Ucimu’s forecasts for 2026, which predict a four-point rise in production driven by an almost twofold increase in domestic deliveries – a scenario expected to materialise between July and December.

“MIMIT,” concludes Rosa, “deserves great credit for having designed this incentive to run over several years. Its continuation until September 2028 should ensure that Italian customers can plan their investments in new machine tools and production technologies in a considered manner, whilst also allowing us manufacturers to plan our production activities over the medium term. The hope is to see the Italian market return soon to the levels of 2021–2022, when it was worth over 6 billion euros (it currently stands at 4.5, ed.). This is also because our manufacturing industry needs to innovate in order to remain competitive in an international context where digital technology and AI are completely reshaping the rules of the game.”

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